The Future of VR Gaming: Why It May Not Be the Primary Focus

Considering the progress made in the VR/AR market, it appears to be advancing steadily. Meta continues to release headsets at affordable prices, while Apple's Vision Pro, despite its high cost, demonstrates the commitment of tech giants to this space and showcases technological potential that will soon be available in more affordable devices. Sony, meanwhile, remains dedicated to supporting its PSVR 2 with a pipeline of software releases. However, according to a survey of game developers, 56% believe the VR market is declining or stagnant, compared to 23% who see growth. As someone who analyzes opinion polling data, it's essential to note the limitations of such surveys, as only a subset of developers have visibility into the commercial performance of VR. This survey is more indicative of developers' willingness to consider VR development rather than a precise measurement of VR's commercial performance. Nevertheless, it's a bleak outlook for a sector that's supposedly a crucial part of the future of gaming. The advancements in VR and AR hardware have been significant, and these devices are finding applications in various commercial and industrial settings, ensuring a solid future for the technology. The negativity among game developers about the sector's prospects isn't hard to understand, given the significant roadblocks VR has encountered in the gaming front. At the heart of these problems lies the fact that the progress made in VR technology, although impressive, has not focused on aspects that would convert casual users into dedicated consumers. Improvements in resolution, framerate, and innovations like foveated rendering have been substantial, but these may be less important to mass-market appeal than innovations in form factor, which have been slower to emerge. VR headsets remain heavy, bulky, and uncomfortable, with issues like steam and sweat, making them unappealing to many users. The current approach to addressing the isolating aspect of VR is through high-quality video passthrough, as seen on the Quest 3 and Vision Pro. However, what consumers seem to get most excited about is the lower-spec displays in devices with a more casual, sunglasses-like form factor. It's possible that users will engage more with less immersive devices that can be used casually. If the hardware issue is the primary problem with VR, it won't be solved soon. The solution may not lie solely in creating more lightweight and casually usable hardware. As someone who has purchased various VR headsets that now gather dust, I realize that I'm part of a community with a shared secret: we're enthusiastic about VR but struggle to find reasons to continue using it. The hurdle to usage eventually becomes too high, and the devices end up being forgotten. It's not that there aren't games to play, but VR has a high bar to engagement; it's demanding and hard to fit into daily life. VR developers have started to create more casual experiences, but the devices themselves remain a hassle. Headset manufacturers have noticed this issue and have shifted their messaging towards VR/AR as a tool for work and productivity rather than a gaming platform. Perhaps the actual moment of opportunity for VR/AR games is when the technology becomes more ubiquitous and people already own the devices for other purposes. On devices like PCs and smartphones, games were a fun thing to do on hardware you already owned for other purposes. If AR is the future of computing, games using those devices will get their moment to shine when the barriers to entry drop. Much of the development of VR has been game-centric, but this approach may have reached a dead end. VR headsets must compete with televisions, PCs, and smartphones, and their barrier to entry makes it inevitable that consumers will choose the easier option most of the time. If other applications of the technology emerge and succeed, the barriers will drop, and people may use their work headsets for gaming as well.