Rethinking Game Success: Moving Beyond Steam Wishlists

As the founder and CEO of Pragma, the company behind the FirstLook playtesting and community management platform, Eden Chen has insights into the game development process. The traditional method of using Steam wishlists to gauge a game's commercial potential has been the norm since digital distribution became the primary way to release PC games. However, this approach has its limitations, as conversion rates have declined and high-profile failures have eroded player trust in pre-orders. Studios that rely too heavily on wishlists are often caught off guard by lackluster launches and poor player engagement. Wishlists are not entirely useless, as they still play a role in visibility and signaling interest. Nevertheless, they only provide a partial picture of a game's potential. A more comprehensive set of metrics is necessary to accurately assess engagement, community, and staying power. Predicting success is not just about forecasting sales; it also influences marketing strategies, IP development, and communication with publishers and investors. Wishlists alone cannot provide this information, but a broader range of signals can. The game industry became fixated on wishlists due to their ability to increase visibility in the Steam algorithm, keeping games top of mind during launches and discounts, and making them appear in friends' feeds. However, wishlists do not always translate to purchases. Some players add games to their wishlists without intending to buy them, while others may add a game to support a studio but never follow through. A study by Video Game Insights found that momentum only gains significant traction when a game surpasses 100,000 wishlists, a milestone achieved by only about 6% of games. Most games have fewer than 10,000 wishlists. Even with impressive wishlist numbers, long-term success is not guaranteed. High wishlist counts can lead to strong launch numbers, but sustained engagement depends on the quality of the game and its retention loop. Many games launch with hundreds of thousands of wishlists but struggle to maintain player interest after release. For new IP or indie studios, relying solely on wishlists can lead to uncertainty. A better approach is to measure community health and playtest retention by examining player behavior before and after adding a game to their wishlist. Key indicators include Discord engagement, organic influencer coverage, sentiment on social media platforms, and player referrals. These metrics are more significant than a single wishlist click, which may only indicate fleeting interest. Repeat playtests, ongoing comments, and a growing community demonstrate genuine commitment. When players engage with a community, they invite friends, creating a snowball effect that can exponentially grow the player base. Community activity has a compounding effect, unlike a wishlist, which is a one-time action. The good news is that these metrics can be tracked early on, long before launch. By monitoring Discord growth, analyzing feedback, and identifying social content that drives repeat engagement, developers can confidently forecast sales and retention. Not all buzz is indicative of long-term success; the key is to identify signals that correlate with sustained engagement. For example, a viral post may lead to a spike in wishlists, but this may not be a reliable indicator of long-term success. In contrast, a group of players participating in multiple playtests is a stronger sign of engagement. A Reddit thread with hundreds of comments may be less significant than a smaller community that engages daily. When evaluating influencers, it's essential to look beyond the number of posts or players and consider audience response and recurring themes across channels. Early on, this tracking can be done manually, but as the game scales, dedicated community managers and data analysis tools become necessary. The focus should be on repeatable signals rather than one-off spikes. Hard data on community engagement and retention is a valuable tool, not just for forecasting but also for de-risking game launches. With data-driven insights, AAA studios can make informed decisions about game development, tweaks, and potential investment. Similarly, indie studios seeking publishing deals or investment can demonstrate proof of momentum by showcasing growing communities, feedback implementation, and player retention. The famous line "If you build it, they will come" from the movie Field of Dreams is often misquoted. In the context of game marketing, this phrase refers not to the game itself but to the community surrounding it. Studios that build and nurture their communities from the ground up, measuring health, sentiment, and retention, will not only predict success but also generate it.