Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 May Boost Game Pass Subscriptions by 2.5-4 Million

The integration of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 into Game Pass is expected to negatively impact game sales, but will likely attract millions of new subscribers to Xbox's service, according to leading analysts. The true success of this move will not be immediately apparent, as it depends on Xbox's ability to retain subscribers in the months following the game's launch. Wedbush CEO Michael Pachter estimates that including Call of Duty in Game Pass could result in up to six million lost sales, assuming 25% of Game Pass subscribers would have purchased the game anyway. However, he also predicts that this move could lead to three to four million new subscribers signing up for Game Pass to access the title. Pachter views this as a positive development for both Microsoft and consumers, but notes that the headlines will focus on the decline in Call of Duty sales. Ampere's chief games analyst, Piers Harding-Rolls, is more cautious, forecasting a 10% increase in Game Pass Ultimate subscribers (approximately 2.5 million). He also points out that not all new subscribers will be entirely new users, as some will upgrade from Game Pass Core and Game Pass Standard, with Call of Duty only available in the Ultimate tier. Harding-Rolls acknowledges that there will be some lost premium sales, but believes that this can be mitigated through other forms of monetization. "The removal of the 14-day $1 trial offer suggests that Microsoft needs to maximize its subscription revenue returns from the introduction of one of the biggest gaming franchises at launch," he explains. "Adding the latest Call of Duty will be expensive for Microsoft, at least initially. However, Call of Duty is increasingly a live-service game that generates significant revenue through in-game monetization. Microsoft will be trading premium full-game sales for a larger audience that can be monetized in-game instead. "One of the key questions is how this will impact the game's monetization and whether there will be a greater emphasis on in-game monetization compared to previous entries in the franchise. In terms of audience expansion, Xbox and PC are likely to be key growth platforms. Cloud support at launch offers some potential, but I believe the Call of Duty streaming opportunity aligns more strongly with playing on TV screens and PC monitors rather than mobile devices, where Call of Duty Mobile and Warzone are already popular." Newzoo market analyst Brett Hunt also believes that Black Ops 6 will attract a stronger audience this year, compared to last year's Modern Warfare 3, due to its well-received campaign, new movement system, and return of round-based Zombies. "Black Ops has always been well-received, and with a mutually exclusive campaign from Modern Warfare, this should result in numbers closer to those of Modern Warfare 2 than 3. This is the most Call of Duty has been reinvigorated in recent years, and the numbers will likely reflect this," Hunt says. Newzoo reports that Modern Warfare 2 attracted 21.7 million monthly active users in the US, compared to 12 million for Modern Warfare 3. One key discussion point is the impact of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 on PlayStation. With the end of Sony's content and marketing exclusivity agreement with Activision, and Game Pass unavailable on PlayStation 5, there may be some audience shift from PlayStation to Xbox. "Those who own both Xbox and PlayStation consoles may be swayed to play the game on Microsoft's devices, but cross-platform play and multi-platform accounts mean this is not necessarily a permanent decision," explains Harding-Rolls. All analysts agree that the success of this move depends on Xbox's ability to retain new subscribers beyond the game's launch period and implement a strategy to engage them throughout 2025. Katan Games' Dr. Serkan Toto believes there is significant pressure on Xbox to succeed. "Microsoft's gaming unit has not been growing as expected, which is why Microsoft approved the Activision Blizzard mega deal. Now the pressure on Xbox is extremely high: if Call of Duty cannot make the Game Pass business model work, what can? "Nobody knows what Microsoft's expectations are for Game Pass growth past launch, but if Black Ops 6 does not meet targets, things can become very grim very quickly. I also wonder if Black Ops 6 will be able to retain subscribers in the long run or if numbers will drop sharply again early next year, after the initial hype runs out." However, Pachter believes Call of Duty is the perfect game to keep users engaged. "Call of Duty players generally play for much longer due to multiplayer and frequent map drops. I think the average is closer to six months, and many play year-round. The year-round players will sign up and stay."