Is the Star Wars Franchise in Jeopardy?

As sales data for Star Wars Outlaws trickles in, the extent of Ubisoft's crisis is becoming clear. While not the sole factor, the game's underperformance is significant, with numbers lagging behind other recent Star Wars titles and Ubisoft's own open-world games. The decision to pull back Assassin's Creed Shadows may be multifaceted, but it suggests a loss of confidence in the company's open-world formula and ability to identify quality games. However, it's possible that Ubisoft is not entirely to blame for the underperformance of Outlaws. The company's game pipeline has issues, but it may have simply found itself in the wrong place at the wrong time, caught in the fallout of Disney's mismanagement of the Star Wars IP. Star Wars Outlaws is not all it could have been, and word-of-mouth has been lukewarm. Yet, just a few years ago, a game like this would have sold well despite a lukewarm reception. A Star Wars game on this scale would have been a guaranteed success if executed competently. While Outlaws may not be a timeless classic, it's a solid, atmospheric game that plays to the strengths of the Star Wars universe. The underperformance of Outlaws may indicate a deeper problem with the Star Wars IP. The franchise's bankability is uncertain, and Disney's struggles to make TV and movie projects stick suggest that the issue is not unique to games. The notion that Star Wars is a guaranteed success is no longer valid, and the franchise's over-saturation may be to blame. Disney's approach to Star Wars has been to flood the market with content, attempting to replicate the success of the MCU. However, this strategy has led to a loss of scarcity and mystery, which were key to the franchise's appeal. The announcement of new Star Wars media now feels like a reminder of the backlog of content rather than a source of excitement. In contrast, companies like Nintendo have successfully managed their IPs by maintaining a balance between exposure and scarcity. The success of Hogwarts Legacy demonstrates the value of careful franchise management, where a well-loved franchise is not over-saturated with media. Franchise management is a delicate balance between meeting investor demands and avoiding over-exploitation. Companies that succeed in the long term understand that managing IP is like agriculture, requiring restraint and careful nurturing. The Star Wars franchise serves as a cautionary tale of what happens when restraint is not exercised, and Ubisoft is caught in the midst of Disney's mismanagement of the IP.