What is the Minimum Number of Players Required for a Game like Concord to be Sustainable?

The recent news that Sony is temporarily shutting down its live service hero shooter Concord has sparked a heated debate about the minimum number of players required for a game to be sustainable. With the game's launch sales estimated at 25,000 copies and player counts dwindling, it has become clear that the game is struggling to attract and retain a sizable player base. According to analysts, the decision to shut down a live service game is often based on a complex array of factors, including development costs, marketing expenses, and revenue projections. Piers Harding-Rolls, head of games research at Ampere Analysis, notes that there is no one-size-fits-all answer to the question of how many players a game needs to survive, as different games have different business models, monetization strategies, and target audiences. Harding-Rolls suggests that the number of monthly active users required to sustain a game can vary wildly, from 200,000 to 2 million, depending on the game's specific circumstances. Other factors that can impact a game's sustainability include the size and composition of its development team, the cost of maintaining and updating the game, and the level of competition in the market. Guha Bala, co-founder of Velan Studios, agrees that the decision to shut down a game is often nuanced and dependent on a range of factors. He notes that for a PvP multiplayer game, a peak concurrent user count of 10,000 per region is often required to provide a smooth and enjoyable experience for players. However, he also suggests that games that are not built around skill-based matchmaking can survive with lower player counts, and that PvE games can function with even fewer players. Bala also emphasizes the importance of a game's business model in determining its sustainability. He notes that free-to-play games often require a large and engaged player base to generate sufficient revenue, and that premium titles with larger development teams can be more expensive to maintain. Concord, which was released with a mid-range price point and no microtransactions or battle pass, may have struggled to generate sufficient revenue to sustain its development and maintenance costs. Despite the challenges, Bala believes that more live service games should be built around the premium model, which can provide a more stable and predictable revenue stream. He argues that this approach can also lead to more innovative and engaging gameplay experiences, as developers are not forced to rely on aggressive monetization tactics to generate revenue. The future of Concord remains uncertain, but it is clear that the game's struggles are not unique. With many live service titles competing for players' attention, it has become increasingly difficult for new games to establish a sizable and dedicated player base. As the gaming industry continues to evolve, it will be interesting to see how developers and publishers adapt to these challenges and find new ways to create sustainable and engaging live service experiences.