The Evolution of Indie Game Publishing: A New Era Emerges

The recent closure of Humble Games has highlighted the challenges facing indie game publishers, with many struggling to adapt to a rapidly changing market. Over the past 18 months, the industry has witnessed a decline in game revenue, over-investment, and rising costs, leading to a perfect storm of uncertainty. Simon Byron, MD of Yogscast Games, notes that the publishing industry has always been unpredictable, with forecasting game sales a notoriously difficult task. The current market shifts, driven by oversaturation, subscription services, and aggressive discounting, have made it even harder for publishers to compete. Byron remains optimistic about the market, citing the constant stream of great games and breakout hits. However, he acknowledges that some companies have built their operations on unrealistic expectations, leading to heartbreaking consequences. Unrealistic expectations are a common challenge for companies with demanding investors and shareholders. Snow Rui, CFO and president of Hooded Horse, highlights the tension between public companies' desire for predictable revenue and the inherently unpredictable nature of game development. As a result, some publishers have become risk-averse, seeking more predictable and reliable sources of revenue. John Clark, former CEO of Curve, notes that publishers are re-balancing their stability and risk elements, with more predictable catalogue and long tail games performance underpinning stability. However, this approach can be counterproductive, as Devolver's Nigel Lowrie points out. Risk aversion can lead to missed opportunities, and those willing to experiment and remain agile will find their hits and build an engaged audience. The market has shifted in favor of specialist publishers, who can offer a focused and unique experience. Yogscast's Byron believes that the era of the generalist indie publisher is over, and that publishers need to have a clear understanding of their niche to succeed. Self-publishing has become a viable option for indie teams, with many successes in recent years. Hooded Horse's Rui notes that self-publishing is not a bad alternative, and that publishers need to prove their value and offer good terms to remain competitive. The future of the indie publishing scene is uncertain, but one thing is clear: there is no going back to the old ways. The formation of new, creative publishers and studios offers hope for the industry, and the emergence of specialist publishers and labels is a positive trend. As the industry continues to evolve, it is likely that we will see new small studios and publishers emerge, taking creative risks and pushing the medium forward. The current chaos may be dark, but it also presents an opportunity for a new era of creativity and innovation to emerge.