Expert Predictions for 2024: A Year of Transformation in the Gaming Industry

As 2024 unfolds, the gaming industry is poised for significant changes. Following a tumultuous 2023, marked by major acquisitions and widespread job cuts, industry professionals are weighing in on what the new year may hold. GamesIndustry.biz has gathered insights from publishers, developers, and gaming experts to provide a comprehensive outlook for 2024. According to Xalavier Nelson Jr. of StrangeScaffold, the industry will be torn between two opposing forces. On one hand, companies will strive to make bold financial moves, disregarding market trends, player preferences, and production realities. This approach will lead to unpredictable budget increases, project delays, and instability in publisher portfolios. On the other hand, there will be a growing appetite for indie projects with budgets under $500,000, which will be signed on a short-term basis to fill the gaps between delayed larger projects. Geogrify CEO Kate Edwards predicts that 2024 will see increased visibility for global game creations, particularly from emerging markets and non-Western studios. As the demographics of gamers continue to expand globally, players will seek new experiences, and the industry will need to adapt to meet this demand. Edwards also notes that AAA publishers and studios will need to redefine their roles in a rapidly changing industry. Seungchul Kim of Neowiz anticipates significant changes in the Korean gaming market, driven by the adoption of AI technology to boost efficiency and manage rising HR costs. The VR gaming market is also expected to experience substantial growth with the introduction of next-generation products like the Apple Vision Pro. Additionally, competition in the Korean mobile gaming market will intensify, while the PC and console gaming markets will continue to grow consistently. Gameloft's Alexandre de Rochefort forecasts a rise in the use of AI tools in game development, simplifying asset creation and enhancing player experiences. He also expects gaming subscription services to gain popularity, offering users access to a vast library of games for a monthly fee. Furthermore, games-as-a-service will continue to expand, providing cross-platform experiences and allowing players to enjoy games on any device. Riot Games' Jake Perlman-Garr predicts a challenging year for the gaming industry, with venture funding remaining cautious and some studios facing restructuring or closure. However, he believes private equity will take a keen interest in the gaming sector, leading to significant acquisitions. Perlman-Garr also expects investment in premium, single-player narrative games to increase, following the success of titles like Baldur's Gate 3 and Starfield. Brad Hendricks of Blind Squirrel Games believes that publishers will focus on risk mitigation, opting for more consistent returns. This will lead to a trend toward games based on licensed IP, remasters of existing titles, and re-imagined IP, which are less susceptible to market fluctuations. Hendricks notes that this approach will also benefit consumers, as new chapters in beloved franchises will help build and strengthen IP for future development. Co-CEOs of Iron Galaxy, Chelsea Blasko and Adam Boyes, see games-as-a-platform continuing to solidify as an industry standard. They point to examples like Roblox and Fortnite, which have evolved into platforms offering a wide range of interactive experiences. This trend will create new opportunities for collaborative development, variety, and discovery for players, as well as limitless opportunities for developers and companies seeking to engage with gamers. Simon Carless of GameDiscoverCo expects the middle market to continue competing for consumer attention in 2024. With nearly 100,000 games available on Steam and a massive library of high-quality legacy titles at discounted prices, new games will struggle to gain attention. Carless advises gaming firms to focus on building a large catalog of discounted games and creating a must-play title to break through the competition. He notes that while graphical fidelity and company size may not be the primary determinants of success, the sheer number of titles on the market will affect long-tail revenue, making it the new normal for the industry in 2024 and beyond.