The Crucial Role of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom and the Super Mario Bros Movie in Switch 2 Success

Historically, Nintendo has faced challenges during console transitions. The company relies heavily on its own games to drive hardware sales, making it essential to balance interest in current and future consoles. Fans often recall the barren final years of previous Nintendo consoles, which led to a loss of momentum and a need to start from scratch with each new generation. As a result, the Switch is under scrutiny as it prepares to transition to its next generation, aiming to bring its massive audience along. Analysts predict a late 2024 release for the next Nintendo console, which seems plausible given the Switch's continued popularity and Nintendo's strategy of releasing hardware at optimal times. The deciding factor, however, will be when the games are ready. Although Switch 2 is not expected soon, the current console's momentum is slowing, with sales declining by over a quarter in some markets. This decline is reminiscent of the Wii's rapid sales drop in 2011 and 2012, which led to a poor finish for one of Nintendo's strongest generations. The Switch, however, is not following the same downward trajectory as the Wii, with 112 million annual users in 2022 and a large, engaged audience. While the console is experiencing a decline, it is not collapsing, and Nintendo games continue to sell well, particularly the big titles like Pokémon Scarlet and Violet, and Splatoon 3. The company has more engagement options now than it did ten years ago, including Mario Kart DLC and additional content for its Switch Online service. Despite this, Nintendo needs a major release to generate engagement, boost console sales, and maintain momentum. Fortunately, it has two significant releases on the horizon: the Mario movie and The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom. The Mario movie has gotten off to a huge start, and Nintendo is actively promoting the Switch through a special hardware bundle and activity on most Mario titles. This promotion targets children and families, aiming to bring new users to the Switch ecosystem. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom is the more significant release, building on the success of Breath of the Wild, which has sold over 30 million copies. Tears of the Kingdom allows players to create vehicles and weapons to overcome challenges, incorporating a user-generated approach to gameplay that could maintain the game's momentum beyond its launch. The success of Tears of the Kingdom is crucial for the Switch, and if it hits, it should provide the console with the momentum it needs to move into a new generation with a large and active audience.