Reflecting on the Past to Predict the Future: 2023 Looks Familiar | Opinion

As the year draws to a close, it's a good time to take a step back and assess the current state of affairs. Looking back at last year's final column, it's striking how some issues have seen little progress, while others have undergone significant changes. The tradition of making predictions for the upcoming year often comes with a side of humble pie, as unforeseen events can quickly render those predictions obsolete. Last year's prediction that unionization would be a major story in 2022 was partially correct, although the announcement of Microsoft's intent to acquire Activision Blizzard shifted the focus away from unionization efforts. Nevertheless, unionization remains a pressing issue in the industry, with workers in the tech sector beginning to recognize the benefits of organized labor. Familiar stories from 2021 continue to dominate the headlines, including console hardware shortages, Sony's commitment to its VR platform, and the metaverse. However, 2022 had its share of surprises, including the massive Activision Blizzard acquisition, which is expected to reshape the industry's commercial landscape. Although the deal has not yet been finalized, it is likely to remain a major story in 2023 and 2024. Microsoft's promise to keep Call of Duty available on Nintendo and Steam platforms for a decade may be just the beginning of the concessions the company will need to make to secure approval for the deal. The US FTC's concerns about the acquisition of Zenimax suggest that the regulatory process will be lengthy and challenging. The integration of the two companies will likely take significant time, and the current console generation may be nearing its end before the merger has a meaningful impact on the Xbox business. In the coming year, Sony and Nintendo are expected to focus on hardware, with Sony's PSVR2 launch being closely watched. Supply chain issues for the PS5 may gradually resolve, allowing Nintendo to finally release an updated Switch model. The loot box discourse is unlikely to disappear in 2023, as regulatory investigations continue around the world. However, companies may begin to avoid this monetization path due to the steady flow of news about regulation. A potential wildcard for 2023 is the launch of a serious rival to Game Pass. Amazon, Valve, and Epic are potential candidates, but another major company could emerge as a competitor. It's unlikely that Microsoft will be allowed to dominate the game subscription market without a challenge. As the year begins, one thing is certain – the gaming industry will continue to evolve, and unforeseen events will shape the future.