The Future of the Gaming Industry: Growth or Plateau?

Following a period of unprecedented growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, the gaming industry has experienced a significant slowdown in recent years. The question on everyone's mind is: will this growth return, or has the industry reached a point of maturity where the market is saturated? To address this, two essays from industry experts have been compiled, presenting opposing viewpoints on the future of the gaming industry. One essay argues that the industry is poised for continued growth, albeit from different geographic locations, while the other suggests that the industry may be entering a post-growth phase, requiring a redefinition of success. The first essay, written by Chris Petrovic, chief business officer at FunPlus, expands on his talk at the DevGAMM Madeira Games Summit, where he discussed the potential for growth in the industry, driven by emerging markets and technological advancements. The second essay, penned by Dr. Pejman Mirza-Babaei, dean of the School of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies at Ontario Tech University, explores the idea that the gaming industry may be reaching maturity, and if so, what this means for the definition of success. A closer examination of the industry's history reveals a series of cycles, driven by technological, business model, and platform shifts, as well as evolving consumer preferences. The industry has experienced numerous peaks and valleys, from the early days of PC gaming to the rise of mobile gaming, and more recently, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The current market is characterized by a more mature, yet still growing, industry, with estimates suggesting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5% over the next few years. However, part of the discomfort surrounding the industry's growth is the realization that large-scale commercial success is increasingly coming from new and different parts of the world, such as China, Turkey, Israel, and Vietnam. As the industry continues to expand globally, it is inevitable that success will follow, and the question becomes how to capitalize on this trend. Another concern is that as the industry matures, consumers will spend more time playing fewer games, leading to consolidation across fewer companies. While this is a common phenomenon in long-standing business sectors, the gaming industry's history of creative and technological innovation, combined with a deep understanding of consumer needs and preferences, provides a unique advantage. The industry is also faced with the challenge of understanding the evolving preferences of digital-native generations, such as Gen Z and Gen Alpha, as competition for their time and attention grows increasingly fierce. Despite these challenges, the gaming industry is well-positioned to continue holding its top place in the cultural zeitgeist, with many younger generations considering gaming a leading or primary source of entertainment and socialization. As someone who has worked at the intersection of gaming, tech, and entertainment for over 20 years, there is no doubt that the industry is one of the most dynamic, innovative, and fast-moving business sectors today, with a bright future ahead. However, the question remains: will the industry's growth return, or is it entering a mature, post-growth phase? If the latter is the case, the industry must rethink what success looks like, moving beyond the traditional measures of revenue and profit. Post-growth economics argues that societies cannot depend on endless expansion, and that growth may not be the best measure of well-being. Instead, the focus should shift to stability, sustainability, and quality of life. This idea may seem far removed from game development, but it has a direct connection to the industry's treatment of revenue curves as the primary measure of success. A profitable game is often seen as a 'successful' game, but this definition no longer fits the reality of the industry. Player attention is finite, budgets are ballooning, and layoffs have hit every corner of the industry. New tech cycles, such as live service, VR, and AI, no longer guarantee new growth. After 40 years of rapid expansion, the industry may be reaching a natural plateau. If this is the case, the question becomes: how can the industry thrive in a world where growth is no longer guaranteed? One hopeful truth is that game development has many advantages in a mature or post-growth economy, relying more on creativity than physical resources, and already supported by public research and community-driven innovation. Making games does not require exponential expansion to produce good outcomes; what it requires is stability, time, and care. Imagine an industry that measures success not only by profit but also by worker well-being, creative impact, fair labor practices, healthy communities, and ecological responsibility. These are not idealistic hopes but practical goals that many studios and players already value. To achieve these goals, the industry must reconsider what success looks like, moving beyond financial growth and focusing on human-centered measures. Maslow's hierarchy of needs offers a helpful lens, with people in the industry seeking safety, achievement, connection, goodness, and fulfillment. None of these needs require infinite growth; in fact, endless growth often makes them harder to achieve. If the industry is entering a post-growth or steady-state phase, it needs better, more human-centered ways to define success. Some possible measures include economic stability, quality and craft, personal and team development, meaning and cultural impact, player communities, worker well-being, and environmental responsibility. These measures of success are human-centered and make business sense in a world where growth is slowing. If the gaming industry has reached maturity, it is not the end of opportunity but the beginning of choosing wisely. Changing how the industry defines success means examining habits, values, and assumptions, recognizing that a profitable game is not the only success, and a slower year is not automatically a failure. It also means facing fears, as shifting away from growth-first thinking can be uncomfortable. However, the alternative, continuing to chase growth, creates even more uncertainty and instability. The path forward is not simply to wait for growth to return but to build an industry that can thrive even without it. This requires talking with colleagues, players, and supporting unions, pushing for kinder practices, challenging reckless decisions, and making smaller, healthier scopes. Celebrating art and community, not just revenue, is crucial. No one person can fix the system, but everyone can help shape what comes next. By rethinking success for a post-growth world, the industry may find itself creating not only better games but also a better industry and a better future.