Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios—the studio behind Helldivers 2—recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transition. He argued that the tactics and assumptions that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have lost their relevance in today’s market. "Sometimes there’s been doom and gloom, but overall the games industry is doing well," Jorjani said, emphasizing that the fundamental premises on which business plans were built have shifted dramatically. "The playbooks used from 2010 to 2020 no longer work.
The bottom has fallen out of every business case you had. No one knew how well a game would sell, but they assumed it would sell at least this much. Whatever that number was, take a zero away. And that’s the reality." Several forces are driving this upheaval.
One of the most visible trends is the continued rise of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region. Jorjani pointed out that this year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live served as a showcase for the capabilities of studios from China and South Korea, noting that Asian games have been steadily gaining footholds in Western markets for the past decade and are now delivering hit after hit.
He highlighted that China, in particular, appears to have reached a tipping point in terms of the quality and ambition of its titles. While the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric—a factor that shapes design sensibilities—it is also accelerating, partly because artificial‑intelligence tools are enabling faster production cycles worldwide. AI, according to Jorjani, is perhaps the single most unpredictable element shaping the industry’s future. He contrasted the differing attitudes toward AI in the East and West.
In Western circles, developers are wrestling with ethical questions, data‑training rights, and artistic integrity, often debating whether AI should be embraced or resisted on moral grounds. In contrast, many Eastern studios seem less concerned with such debates, adopting AI pragmatically to streamline code and content creation. Jorjani likened the situation to his acquaintances in the broader IT sector, where teams have largely migrated to AI‑driven workflows without lingering qualms, because the primary goal is functional output rather than artistic expression.
He acknowledged that this creates an "existential crisis" for Western game creators, who must reconcile their artistic identity with the reality that AI can turn large portions of development into functional software pipelines. Beyond technology, the sheer length of AAA development cycles remains a structural challenge. Large‑scale projects often span five to six years and involve multiple teams spread across time zones. This long‑term commitment makes publishers wary of investing in new intellectual property (IP) unless there is a strong brand anchor to mitigate risk.
Jorjani explained that recognizable franchises provide a safety net: players know what they’re getting, which reduces the fear of "analysis paralysis" that arises when consumers are bombarded with an ever‑growing flood of new titles. He cited Steam data indicating that roughly half of all playtime is devoted to games older than eighteen months, underscoring the market’s preference for familiar experiences over untested concepts. Nevertheless, Jorjani believes indie developers possess a strategic edge in this environment. He stressed that early validation—getting a prototype or a short clip in front of real players and gathering immediate feedback—is the "secret sauce" for successful games.
Indie studios, with their shorter development loops and willingness to share progress publicly, can iterate quickly based on community reactions. He recounted the rise of Tiny Glade, an indie title that exploded in popularity after early GIFs went viral week after week, illustrating how rapid, low‑cost exposure can drive momentum. Arrowhead itself is adopting this lean, feedback‑driven approach for its upcoming project. Jorjani described a plan to place early builds directly into the hands of a curated group of Helldivers fans, then segment those players based on their preferences for specific themes—such as alien‑centric narratives—versus broader action‑game interests.
By comparing responses from a highly targeted cohort against a control group, the studio hopes to fine‑tune its design direction early, rather than waiting for a massive marketing push after years of development. This method mirrors strategies long used by mobile developers, who test concepts through ad creatives and iterate on the most engaging variants. In summary, Jorjani painted a picture of an industry at a crossroads: long development timelines, the ascendancy of Asian studios, and the disruptive potential of AI are reshaping how games are conceived, built, and marketed. While the old playbooks have lost much of their predictive power, the rise of indie agility and data‑driven early validation offers a new pathway to success.
Arrowhead’s own shift toward rapid prototyping and community‑centric testing exemplifies how studios can adapt, letting go of the tradition of keeping projects under wraps for years and instead embracing a more open, iterative development culture.