If Grand Theft Auto VI does not hit the shelves in 2026, the console segment would essentially break even with its 2025 performance, according to Newzoo’s market intelligence chief Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. He explained his outlook during an interview with GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, emphasizing that Rockstar’s flagship crime‑action title is the sole catalyst capable of delivering any meaningful growth for the console market this year.
Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but he made clear that the impact of GTA VI dwarfs all other factors. "Two main forces are shaping the current and near‑future health of consoles: the Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will push the market upward," Rosier said. He added a hypothetical scenario to illustrate the point: "If GTA VI weren’t arriving in 2026, we would actually see a year‑on‑year decline for the platform. The game is essentially the engine that will keep console revenue in positive territory." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up those statements with hard numbers.
The firm forecasts a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, taking the total to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a rate that Newzoo identifies as the strongest growth among all business models in the industry.
Rosier also warned that the launch of GTA VI could be "cannibalistic" to other titles, meaning that many developers are deliberately shifting their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster. This strategic scheduling reflects the sheer market‑pull power of the Grand Theft Auto brand, which can dominate consumer attention and spending for months around its launch.
When asked whether the 2026 surge would be a one‑off spike that might normalize or even dip in 2027, Rosier pointed out the enduring strength of the GTA franchise. "The catalogue value of Grand Theft Auto is massive; the story doesn’t end in 2026," he explained.
He noted that while the exact trajectory of GTA Online remains uncertain—Take‑Two has not disclosed a clear roadmap for the transition between the current online component and the new title—the revenue generated by the online ecosystem is still a significant factor in the overall forecast. Looking ahead to 2027, Newzoo’s projections incorporate the anticipated PC release of GTA VI, which is expected to be another major revenue driver. However, Rosier emphasized that the firm’s outlook is based on historical patterns and past performance of earlier GTA releases, rather than insider information from Take‑Two. The discussion also touched on pricing dynamics.
Rosier observed that when a high‑profile game like GTA VI commands a premium price, it can lift the price floor across the industry. "Price elasticity is very low for a title like GTA VI because there is only one version of the game," he said. "When top‑end pricing moves up, it tends to ripple through the market, nudging indie titles from $20 toward $30 and raising overall average spend." Beyond consoles, Newzoo reaffirmed that mobile remains the dominant revenue source in the global games market.
The report predicts mobile will capture 57% of total industry revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. In a related data point, Newzoo previously estimated that GTA VI pre‑orders generated about $260 million in the first week after they opened, underscoring the intense consumer appetite for the title even before its official release. Overall, the consensus among analysts is clear: without the gravitational pull of Grand Theft Auto VI, the console market would likely see flat or declining revenues in 2026. The combination of a highly anticipated flagship release and the introduction of the Switch 2 creates a rare confluence of factors that could temporarily reverse a broader industry trend toward mobile dominance.
Whether this uplift will sustain beyond the initial launch window remains to be seen, but for the coming year, GTA VI is poised to be the linchpin of console growth.