Newzoo Predicts Console Earnings Would Stagnate in 2026 Without GTA 6

According to Newzoo’s latest market intelligence, the console segment would essentially see no growth in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that the upcoming GTA VI title is the single most powerful catalyst keeping the console market from slipping into a year‑on‑year decline.

Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another important factor that is currently supporting console performance, but he stressed that the GTA VI launch is the dominant driver. "There are two main forces shaping the console outlook right now: the anticipated Switch 2 rollout and, above all, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI," Rosier told the press. "If GTA VI were not arriving in 2026, we would be looking at a contraction across the board. The game is essentially the engine that will push console revenues into positive territory this year." Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report predicts that total console revenue will climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching roughly $46.9 billion.

Within that growth, GTA VI is forecast to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, which Newzoo identifies as the strongest growth rate among all business models in the sector. The analyst firm notes that this surge will not only benefit Rockstar’s own titles but will also have a spill‑over effect on the broader ecosystem, prompting many developers to shift their release schedules to avoid direct competition with the blockbuster launch. Rosier warned that the GTA VI release is likely to be "cannibalistic" to other high‑profile games, meaning that some titles may see reduced sales simply because consumers will prioritize the new Grand Theft Auto experience.

This dynamic explains why several studios have already announced delayed launch windows, hoping to capture more attention once the initial hype around GTA VI has settled. When asked whether the 2026 spike in console revenue could be a one‑off "GTA bump" that might normalize or even dip in 2027, Rosier argued that the franchise’s longevity makes such a scenario unlikely.

"Grand Theft Auto has become a catalogue staple," he said. "The impact doesn’t end when the launch window closes; the title continues to generate revenue through updates, online services, and ongoing community engagement." He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "Take‑Two has not disclosed a clear roadmap for the transition between the current GTA Online environment and the new version that will accompany GTA VI," Rosier noted.

"We do know the online component is a significant revenue stream, but without official communication we can only infer its trajectory from past patterns. Our 2027 forecast already assumes a PC release of GTA VI, which will be another major revenue driver, yet we lack concrete details on how the online ecosystem will evolve." Regarding pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for a flagship title like GTA VI is very low. "There is only one GTA VI, so consumers are willing to pay a premium," he explained.

"When a top‑tier game raises its price, it often lifts the overall market price floor, prompting indie developers to adjust their pricing as well. We’ve already seen a shift from the typical $20 price point to around $30 for many new releases." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reiterates that mobile remains the dominant platform globally, accounting for 57% of total game revenue in 2026—approximately $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher player spending, expanded direct‑to‑consumer storefronts, and continued investment in live‑ops and microtransaction models.

The report also highlighted the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA VI. In its first week of availability, pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in revenue, underscoring the massive anticipation surrounding the title. This early influx of cash further illustrates how a single blockbuster can shape the financial health of the entire console ecosystem.

In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would be essentially flat without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI. While the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 will add incremental strength, it is the GTA VI launch—paired with its anticipated online component and high price point—that is expected to deliver the bulk of the 5.1% revenue growth forecast for 2026. The broader implications include a temporary reshuffling of release calendars across the industry, a potential short‑term dip in competing titles, and a continued upward pressure on game pricing across all segments.