According to Newzoo’s latest market outlook, the console segment would essentially see no growth in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during the Gamescom 2026 conference that the upcoming GTA VI title is the primary catalyst preventing a year‑on‑year decline for console makers.
Rosier also highlighted the anticipated Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but he emphasized that the blockbuster crime‑action game is the dominant driver of the modest uplift. Rosier stated, “There are two forces shaping the current and future health of the console market: the Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will push the market upward.” He added a hypothetical scenario, saying, “If GTA VI weren’t arriving in 2026, the platform would actually shrink compared with 2025. The title is what’s allowing consoles to post positive growth this year.” Newzoo’s newly published Global Games Market Report projects console revenue to climb 5.1 percent in 2026, reaching approximately $46.9 billion.
Within that figure, GTA VI is expected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5 percent, a growth rate that Newzoo labels as the strongest among all business models in the industry. The report underscores that the title’s impact will be felt across the entire ecosystem, from hardware sales to digital storefronts. Rosier warned that GTA VI’s launch will be “cannibalistic” to other releases, meaning that many developers are strategically shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship.
This pattern mirrors previous generations where major releases have reshaped publishing calendars, prompting studios to delay or accelerate their own titles to capture consumer attention when the market is less saturated. When asked whether the 2026 surge driven by GTA VI would be a one‑off spike that might normalize or even dip in 2027, Rosier noted the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto brand. “The catalogue value of Grand Theft Auto is massive,” he said. “The story doesn’t end with the 2026 launch; the title continues to generate revenue through updates, expansions, and its online component.” He admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete data on the future trajectory of GTA Online, acknowledging that Take‑Two Interactive has been relatively quiet about its long‑term roadmap.
“We know a transition will happen at some point, but Take‑Two hasn’t communicated specifics, so we can only infer from past patterns,” Rosier explained. Looking ahead to 2027, Newzoo’s forecast incorporates the anticipated PC release of GTA VI, which is expected to be another significant revenue driver. However, the firm cautions that without concrete information from Rockstar, any projection remains speculative.
Rosier emphasized that the company’s methodology relies heavily on historical performance and observable trends from previous Grand Theft Auto cycles. Regarding pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for a title like GTA VI is unusually low. “When a single, highly anticipated game commands a premium price, it tends to lift the overall price floor across the industry,” he said.
He pointed out that indie titles have already seen price hikes from $20 to $30, a shift partly attributed to the ripple effect of premium‑priced AAA releases. “Everyone has been waiting for a long time,” Rosier added. “That doesn’t mean every developer can follow suit, but when top‑tier pricing moves upward, it often nudges the broader market in the same direction.” The report also reaffirmed mobile gaming’s dominance, projecting that the sector will capture 57 percent of global gaming revenue in 2026—about $121.1 billion—representing a 6.8 percent year‑over‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher player spend and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets.
In a related data point, Newzoo disclosed that pre‑orders for GTA VI generated roughly $260 million in revenue during the first week they became available, underscoring the title’s immediate commercial impact even before its official launch. Overall, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that is heavily dependent on a single flagship release to achieve modest growth in 2026. While the Switch 2 will provide additional support, the absence of GTA VI would likely result in a flat or declining revenue landscape for consoles. The company’s projections suggest that the ripple effects of Rockstar’s release—both in terms of direct sales and broader pricing trends—will shape the industry’s financial health well beyond the initial launch window, extending into the next fiscal year and potentially influencing the strategic decisions of developers and publishers across the board.