Ubisoft Takes a Risk with Assassin's Creed Shadows Delay, Giving Star Wars Outlaws a Second Chance

I have always believed that Star Wars Outlaws was ideally suited for a Christmas release. The game was unveiled during the 2023 E3 event and garnered an overwhelmingly positive response, quickly becoming a top contender on media wish lists and stealing the show that year. As a big, mainstream open-world blockbuster set in the Star Wars universe, it seemed like a guaranteed success, provided it was well-made. However, things did not go as planned. While many have focused on the failure of Concord, which was a high-risk concept from the start, being a new IP from a new developer in an unfamiliar space for PlayStation, Star Wars Outlaws was a different story altogether. It had all the ingredients for success, yet it still underperformed. This continues a streak of poor fortune and form for Ubisoft, and with anxious shareholders and a substantial payroll, the prospect of job cuts is a concern. The first sign that Star Wars Outlaws might not meet financial expectations came during the Summer Games Fest in June. A year after its reveal, the response was lukewarm, with social media statistics and wish list data indicating that the game was behind not only the major reveals but also many smaller ones. Of course, it was never going to generate the same buzz as a new announcement, but with less than three months to launch, it seemed like the gaming world was indifferent. There are many theories about what went wrong, ranging from the release window and business model to the available platforms, review scores, and the protagonist's character. While I'm not convinced by any of these arguments in isolation, I wonder if releasing the game in late October or early November might have helped it find a broader audience. As the major Star Wars release of the holiday season, it could have been an old-school AAA gaming blockbuster that parents would buy for their kids along with the PS5. Timing it right, combined with a small Black Friday discount, could have made a difference. In any other year, it would have been a year-end release, but in 2024, Ubisoft already had Assassin's Creed Shadows scheduled for the holiday season. As an IP that Ubisoft owns, it made sense to give it the top spot, especially since there's no revenue sharing with Disney. Now, with Assassin's Creed delayed until early next year, Ubisoft is reconfiguring its release strategy. The company appears to have listened to complaints about its business models and is adopting a more consumer-friendly approach. This Christmas, Ubisoft will focus on selling Star Wars Outlaws, along with Just Dance. The days of pre-owned games making it impossible for publishers to recover from a poor launch are over, and marketing efforts initially planned for Assassin's Creed can be redirected to support a second chance for Outlaws. There's room for the game to succeed, with only Call of Duty and Dragon Age being major releases in October. The game's critical reception has been decent, and the development team at Massive is working on tweaks to address criticisms. If Ubisoft can offer some attractive Black Friday deals, there's a chance Star Wars Outlaws could become a popular game over November and December. Meanwhile, releasing Assassin's Creed in February is unconventional, but Ubisoft has a history of delivering hits in the early months of the year, such as with Far Cry and The Division. Recent years have also seen successful February releases like Helldivers 2, Hogwarts Legacy, and Elden Ring. However, I am apprehensive about the game's proximity to Monster Hunter Wilds, which launches two weeks after Assassin's Creed. Capcom's RPG has generated significant buzz globally, and it's an IP that has gained immense popularity in the West. Additionally, it's a major franchise in Japan, a market Ubisoft was hoping to win over with Shadows. It's not just Monster Hunter; Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 and Microsoft's Avowed are also scheduled for February. The release of Sony's Ghost of Tsushima sequel, Ghost of Yotei, another Western-developed historical adventure game set in Japan, is expected later in the year. Ultimately, Assassin's Creed's new release window is highly competitive, possibly more so than its initial November slot. Ubisoft will be mindful of the challenges Sony faced when releasing Horizon Forbidden West just a week before Elden Ring in February 2022. The stated goal of this delay is to change Ubisoft's approach to game releases. As part of this announcement, the publisher has committed to launching its titles on PC via Steam on day one, ending the Epic Games Store experiment. The company is also dropping its sometimes unpopular Season Pass business model and seeking to engage users without an early access solution. Whether these changes will generate goodwill among the community remains to be seen, but in commercial terms, if delaying Assassin's Creed allows Star Wars Outlaws to perform well during the holiday season, and if Assassin's Creed can still deliver strong numbers in its new February slot, it may prove to be a wise decision. However, make no mistake, this move carries significant risk.