If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto 6 in 2026, the worldwide console market would essentially break even with the figures recorded for 2025, according to Newzoo’s market intelligence chief Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. He shared this outlook during an interview with GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, emphasizing that the upcoming blockbuster is the single most important catalyst for any growth in the console segment this year. Rosier also highlighted the role of Nintendo’s next‑generation handheld, the Switch 2, as a secondary engine of momentum. “There are two main drivers shaping the current and near‑future health of consoles: the Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto 6,” he explained.
“If GTA 6 were not on the schedule for 2026, the console platform would actually contract year over year. GTA 6 is the key factor that flips the trajectory into positive growth.” Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up this sentiment, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing total earnings to roughly $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, GTA 6 is expected to lift full‑game spending by an impressive 17.5%, a rate that Newzoo describes as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry. The analyst also warned that the massive pull of GTA 6 could be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a dynamic that has already prompted several developers to shift their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship. When asked whether the 2026 surge would be a one‑off spike that might normalize in 2027, Rosier pointed to the enduring power of the Grand Theft Auto franchise. "The catalogue strength of GTA is huge," he said, "the story doesn’t end with the 2026 launch; it continues to generate revenue long after the initial release." Rosier admitted that Newzoo has limited visibility into the future of GTA Online, noting that Take‑Two Interactive has been tight‑lipped about its roadmap.
"We anticipate a transition at some point, but the timing and exact nature of that shift are unknown," he said. "Our 2027 forecast does include the PC launch of GTA 6, which will be another major driver, but we are essentially extrapolating from the patterns observed with previous GTA releases." On pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for a title like GTA 6 is unusually low. "There’s only one GTA 6, and demand is enormous," he remarked.
"When a premium title raises its price, it often lifts the overall market, even nudging indie games toward higher price points. Historically, when top‑tier games move from $60 to $70, we see a ripple effect that raises average spending across the board." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reiterates that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator, accounting for 57% of global gaming income in 2026—approximately $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher per‑player spend and the expanding influence of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets. The report also noted that GTA 6’s pre‑order phase was a financial juggernaut, delivering about $260 million in its first week of availability.
This early influx underscores the title’s magnetic pull and its capacity to shape spending trends across the entire industry. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be flat without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto 6. Coupled with the anticipated success of the Switch 2, the industry expects modest but meaningful growth in 2026, while mobile continues its reign as the primary revenue engine.
The long‑term implications of GTA 6’s pricing, release timing, and subsequent online ecosystem will remain key variables for analysts to monitor as the year unfolds.