In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially flat‑line in 2026 if not for the arrival of Rockstar Games’ highly anticipated title, Grand Theft Auto VI. Rosier explained to GamesIndustry.biz that the blockbuster crime‑driven open‑world game is the singular catalyst that will keep console revenues from slipping year‑over‑year, and that the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 also plays a supportive role in the sector’s modest growth. "There are two primary engines driving the current and future health of the console ecosystem: the Switch 2 and, of course, the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will push the market upward," Rosier said. He added that without GTA VI, the console segment would likely experience a decline, underscoring the title’s outsized influence on consumer spending.
Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report corroborates this outlook, forecasting a 5.1 percent increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing total earnings to approximately $46.9 billion. Within that framework, GTA VI is projected to lift full‑game spend on consoles by a striking 17.5 percent, a figure Newzoo labels as the strongest growth rate among all business models in the industry. Rosier also noted that the release of GTA VI will inevitably cannibalise sales of other titles, a dynamic that has already prompted several developers to shift their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship. "The launch will be cannibalistic to some other games," he observed, suggesting that studios are strategically timing releases to mitigate the impact of GTA VI’s market‑dominant debut.
When asked whether the 2026 surge driven by GTA VI would be a one‑off spike that would taper off in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto brand. "The catalogue value of Grand Theft Auto is huge; the story doesn’t end in 2026," he explained, indicating that the title’s influence will continue to echo beyond its initial release window.
Regarding the future of GTA Online, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete details about Take‑Two’s roadmap. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," he said. "We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when it will align the current GTA ecosystem with the new title.
We do know it’s generating substantial revenue, and our 2027 forecast includes the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another major driver. However, we’re essentially looking at historical patterns from previous Grand Theft Auto releases to make educated guesses." Rosier also touched on pricing dynamics, noting that the high price point of GTA VI reflects a low elasticity of demand. "When a single, highly anticipated title like GTA VI commands a premium price, the market reacts differently," he said.
"The price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI. Everyone’s been waiting so long; it doesn’t mean everyone can afford it, but historically, when top‑tier pricing rises, it lifts the overall market. Indie titles have moved from $20 to $30, and overall price levels are nudging upward." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide, accounting for 57 percent of total global gaming income in 2026—about $121.1 billion, a 6.8 percent year‑on‑year increase.
This growth is driven by higher player spend and the expanding influence of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets. The report also highlighted the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA VI, which amassed roughly $260 million in revenue within the first week of availability, underscoring the title’s massive market pull. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market heavily reliant on two key forces in 2026: the next‑generation Nintendo Switch 2 and the blockbuster release of Grand Theft Auto VI.
Without GTA VI, console revenues would likely have stagnated or even contracted, but the game’s launch is expected to deliver a robust uplift, both in direct sales and in ancillary effects such as increased pricing power across the sector. Meanwhile, mobile gaming continues its ascent, maintaining its position as the primary engine of global gaming revenue.