What Player Base Is Required for a Game Like Concord to Remain Viable?

The recent announcement that Sony is temporarily halting its live service hero shooter Concord has raised questions about the minimum player base required for a game to remain operational. With estimated sales of 25,000 copies and low player counts, Concord's struggles are not unique in the current gaming landscape. No company takes the decision to shut down an online game lightly, especially when live services are a crucial part of their ongoing strategy. The decision to discontinue a game is often based on various factors, including sales, active player count, and revenue. Multiplayer games are expensive to operate, and servicing a small player base is not cost-effective, particularly during financially turbulent times. So, what is the magic number of players required for a game to warrant continued development and support? According to Piers Harding-Rolls, head of games research at Ampere Analysis, there is no straightforward answer, as it depends on various factors such as R&D investment, staffing costs, marketing spend, and business models. He notes that each game is unique, and the break-even number will differ as a result. Aside from return on investment, having a sufficient player population to ensure a smooth and enjoyable experience is crucial. If a game is underpopulated, players may become frustrated and switch to alternative games. Concord is not an isolated case, as numerous online games have been shut down over the past two years, often after a relatively short period. For instance, Synched, a free-to-play shooter developed and published by Tencent, was discontinued just one year after launch, with only 10,000 daily active users. In February 2023, several shut-down announcements were made, affecting titles such as Apex Legends Mobile, Rumbleverse, and Knockout City. Guha Bala, co-founder of Velan Studios, notes that deciding whether to end an online game is a nuanced issue, and the required number of active players depends on factors such as game type and region. For PvP multiplayer games, Bala suggests that each region should have a peak concurrent user count of 10,000, while games that are not built around skill-based matchmaking can survive with a lower number of players. PvE games can function with even fewer players, around 1,000 to 3,000 concurrent users per region, as bots can serve as enemies and allies. Bala emphasizes that the business model can be a significant issue in keeping a game alive, and player retention is crucial for continuing operations and developing new content. With free-to-play games, he estimates that at least 5% of the total user base needs to be spending money to maintain costs. Concord, which was not free-to-play, opted for a mid-range price point and did not feature microtransactions or a battle pass, generating revenue solely from sales. The game's estimated 25,000 sales in the first week are likely far short of what the game needed to be viable. Despite the challenges, Bala believes that more live service games should be built around the premium model to encourage innovation in the PvP area. The future of Concord remains uncertain, but it is clear that launching a new live service title is becoming increasingly difficult, with millions of players already invested in established titles like Fortnite, Roblox, and GTA Online.