Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios—the studio behind Helldivers 2—recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transitional period. He emphasized that the assumptions and playbooks that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have essentially become obsolete. "Sometimes there’s been doom and gloom, but overall the games industry is doing well," Jorjani remarked. "It’s just that the things we based our assumptions on have changed fundamentally.
The playbooks used from 2010 to 2020 no longer work. The bottom has fallen out of every business case you had.
No one knew how well a game would sell, but they assumed it would sell at least this much. Whatever that number was, take a zero away.
And that’s the reality." ### Why the Landscape Is Shifting Jorjani identified several interlocking forces that are reshaping the market. First, the continued rise of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region is no longer a peripheral trend but a central driver of global output.
This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live, for instance, highlighted the capabilities of studios from China and South Korea, underscoring how Asian games are now regularly competing on the world stage. "There’s always been a general rise of Asian games and companies into the West," he said. "That’s been ongoing for the last ten years, but now it’s reached a point where it’s game after game after game that’s really making it." China, in particular, appears to be at a tipping point in terms of quality and ambition. While the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric—a factor that influences design sensibilities—developers are increasingly delivering experiences that rival Western AAA titles.
Jorjani noted, "It is definitely picking up for sure. I think there’s still a way to go, but there are very different sensibilities to what makes the games tick as well. The Chinese audience is still primarily mobile‑driven.
That flavours the sensibilities, but it’s going faster. I think AI is accelerating this because more and more games are coming out faster and faster everywhere." ### The AI Disruption Artificial intelligence is perhaps the most unpredictable variable on the horizon. Unlike previous hype cycles—such as virtual reality—AI is already being woven into production pipelines, from procedural content generation to automated testing and even narrative design.
Jorjani stressed that the technology is being adopted unevenly across regions. In the West, developers grapple with ethical questions, data‑ownership concerns, and artistic integrity.
"In the West, we’re asking if it is ethical and whether these companies are allowed to train on this data, and whether we should oppose it on ideological or artistic grounds," he explained. Conversely, many Eastern studios appear less encumbered by such debates, embracing AI as a pragmatic tool to accelerate output. "There’s a parallel to those of us who have friends in the IT industry; everyone’s shifted over to using AI completely and without any major moral qualms," Jorjani observed.
He added that Western creators may experience an "existential crisis" because they must reconcile their artistic identity with software that can be generated by algorithms. Nonetheless, he predicts that the West will eventually adopt AI, albeit at a slower pace, because the competitive pressure will become too great to ignore.
### Lengthy Development Cycles and the Risk of New IP Another structural challenge is the sheer time required to build AAA blockbusters. Large‑scale projects often span five to six years, involve multiple studios across different time zones, and demand massive financial commitments. This reality has nudged many Western publishers toward leveraging existing franchises rather than betting on untested intellectual property.
Jorjani explained, "Development cycles are still long. If you know that and the market is changing, you need to be very certain that the bet you’re taking works. The only thing that really, really mitigates risk on that level is brand and recognisability.
People know what they’re getting, so you can offset that risk." He pointed out that the abundance of new releases can lead to "analysis paralysis" for consumers. Familiar brands—such as the long‑running Worms series—provide a safety net: players know the core experience even if they’re unsure about innovation. Data from Steam Replay 2025 supports this, showing that 44 % of user playtime was spent on titles between one and seven years old, indicating a strong preference for established games over brand‑new concepts. While the industry clamors for fresh IPs, actual purchasing behavior often favors remakes, sequels, and familiar franchises.
### Indie Developers Hold a Strategic Edge Amid these macro‑level shifts, Jorjani believes indie studios possess a distinct advantage. He highlighted the importance of early validation—getting a prototype or a simple visual into the hands of players quickly to gauge reaction.
"The secret sauce to any successful game is early validation," he said. "The sooner you can get something in front of a person and get positive feedback, you know you’re on track, onto something, and you can iterate." Indie teams typically operate with shorter cycles, leaner budgets, and a culture of openness. They can share a GIF or a short video clip, monitor community response, and pivot almost instantly. Jorjani cited the indie hit Tiny Glade as an example: early GIFs generated buzz week after week, propelling the title into the spotlight without a massive marketing spend.
By contrast, a four‑year AAA development timeline forces studios to wait until the game is nearly finished before launching a major promotional push, which can be risky if market conditions have shifted. ### Arrowhead’s New Approach Taking these lessons to heart, Arrowhead plans to incorporate early player feedback into its next project. The studio intends to adopt a mobile‑game‑style testing methodology—showcasing concepts as ads or short demos to gauge which ideas resonate most.
Jorjani described a concrete plan: "We’ll probably put the game in the hands of 100 Helldivers players, and then we’ll ask them what their favourite IPs or games are. If they’re interested in aliens and they like Helldivers, we know that segment should score the game higher than a control group that likes Helldivers but not aliens. That will allow us to know that we’re able to hit that specific group, and we should do this now, early into development rather than waiting two years after getting broad user tests." He concluded with a call to abandon the old playbook of secrecy and prolonged hype cycles. "But it requires you to let go of that old playbook of playing your cards close to the chest for years, and then dazzle and razzle," he warned, emphasizing that the future belongs to studios that can iterate rapidly, listen to their audience, and adapt to a market where assumptions change as quickly as technology evolves.
In summary, Jorjani’s assessment paints a picture of an industry at a crossroads: longer development timelines, the ascent of Asian developers, and the disruptive potential of AI are all forcing a reevaluation of how games are made, marketed, and sold. While large publishers may lean on established brands to mitigate risk, independent studios that embrace early validation and agile development stand to capture the emerging opportunities in this rapidly evolving landscape.