Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios – the team behind Helldivers 2 – recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transitional period. He argued that the playbooks that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have lost their relevance, and that the assumptions underpinning business cases from the previous decade are now obsolete.
"Sometimes there’s been doom and gloom, but overall the games industry is doing well," Jorjani said. "It’s just that the things that we based our assumptions on have changed fundamentally.
The playbooks used from 2010 to 2020 no longer work. The bottom has fallen out of every business case that you had.
No one knew how well a game would sell, but they assumed it would sell at least this much. Whatever that number was, take a zero away.
And that’s the reality." ### Why the Landscape Is Shifting Jorjani identified several forces driving this upheaval. One of the most visible is the continued ascent of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region. This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live, for example, served as a showcase for the technical and creative capabilities of studios in China and South Korea.
"There’s always been a general rise of Asian games and companies into the West," he noted. "That’s been ongoing for the last ten years, but now it’s reached a point where it’s game after game after game that’s really making it." China, in particular, appears to have arrived at a tipping point in terms of quality and ambition.
While the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric – a factor that shapes design sensibilities – the speed at which new titles are produced is accelerating, a trend Jorjani attributes in part to artificial intelligence. "It is definitely picking up for sure," he said. "I think that there’s still a way to go, but there are very different sensibilities to what makes the games tick as well.
The Chinese audience is still primarily mobile‑driven. That flavours the sensibilities, but it’s going faster.
I think AI is accelerating this because more and more games are coming out faster and faster everywhere." ### AI: A Game‑Changer with Uneven Adoption Artificial intelligence, according to Jorjani, is the most disruptive technological wave the industry has seen since the advent of online multiplayer. Unlike previous hype cycles such as virtual reality, AI is already being woven into production pipelines, asset creation, and even gameplay design.
However, the cultural response to AI differs sharply between East and West. In Western studios, developers are wrestling with ethical questions, data‑ownership concerns, and artistic integrity. "In the West, we’re asking if it is ethical and whether these companies are allowed to train on this data, and whether we should oppose it on ideological or artistic grounds," he explained.
By contrast, many Eastern developers appear less encumbered by such debates. "In the East, they absolutely do not care whatsoever," Jorjani observed, adding that the pragmatic mindset mirrors that of IT professionals who have already migrated to AI‑driven workflows without moral hesitation. This divergence, he suggests, could lead to a faster uptake of AI tools in Asian studios, potentially widening the gap in production speed and cost efficiency. ### The Burden of Long Development Cycles Another structural challenge remains the length of AAA development timelines.
Large‑scale projects often span five to six years, involving multiple teams spread across continents. The sheer duration amplifies financial risk, especially in a market where consumer tastes shift rapidly.
As a result, many Western publishers have leaned on established franchises and recognizable IPs to mitigate uncertainty. "If you know that and the market is changing, you need to be very certain that the bet you’re taking works," Jorjani said.
"The only thing that really, really mitigates risk on that level is brand and recognisability. People know what they’re getting, so you can offset that risk." He highlighted the phenomenon of "analysis paralysis," where the flood of new releases overwhelms players, prompting them to gravitate toward familiar titles.
Data from Steam Replay 2025 indicates that roughly 44 % of user playtime is spent on games aged between one and seven years, underscoring a consumer preference for known experiences over untested new IPs. Yet, Jorjani believes this environment also creates a strategic opening for indie developers, who can move faster and validate concepts early. ### Indie Agility and Early Validation According to Jorjani, the secret to success in the current climate is early validation – getting a prototype or even a short GIF in front of players and iterating based on their feedback. This approach is common among indie studios, whose development cycles are shorter and whose communities are often more engaged.
He cited the indie hit Tiny Glade, which generated buzz after the studio posted early animated previews that resonated with audiences week after week. "The sooner you can get something in front of a person and get positive feedback, you know you’re on track, onto something, and you can iterate," he said.
Arrowhead itself is adopting this mindset for its next project. The studio plans to involve a select group of dedicated Helldivers players early in development, gathering data on their preferences for specific themes (such as alien settings) and measuring how those preferences correlate with engagement.
By segmenting testers into control and target groups, Arrowhead hopes to fine‑tune its design before committing to a full‑scale production, thereby reducing the risk associated with long‑term, high‑budget development. ### Looking Ahead: Balancing Tradition and Innovation Jorjani concluded that while the West may be slower to embrace AI and new production models, the shift is inevitable. He emphasized that developers must abandon the old playbook of keeping projects under wraps for years and then launching a massive marketing blitz. Instead, they should adopt a more transparent, iterative approach that leverages community feedback, AI‑enhanced tools, and the growing influence of Asian studios.
In summary, the gaming industry’s fundamental assumptions have indeed been upended. Long development cycles, the rise of high‑quality Asian games, and the disruptive potential of AI are reshaping how studios assess risk and allocate resources. For indie developers, the new reality offers a distinct advantage: the ability to validate ideas quickly, adapt to player feedback, and carve out niche audiences without the overhead of massive brand expectations.
Arrowhead’s own strategy—early player involvement, data‑driven iteration, and an openness to emerging technologies—illustrates how a mid‑size studio can navigate this rapidly evolving landscape while still delivering experiences that resonate with dedicated fans.