If Grand Theft Auto VI does not debut in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with 2025, according to the latest insights from Newzoo. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that Rockstar’s flagship crime‑action series is the single most important catalyst for any growth in the console segment this year.
Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but he made clear that without GTA VI the sector would likely see a year‑on‑year decline. "There are two primary drivers shaping the current and future health of consoles: the Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will lift the market," Rosier said. "If GTA VI weren’t arriving in 2026, the platform would be shrinking compared with the previous year. The title is truly enabling consoles to post positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s most recent Global Games Market Report forecasts console revenue to climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to increase full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, a boost Newzoo labels as the strongest growth among all business models for the year. This surge reflects not only the game’s massive pre‑release hype but also the willingness of consumers to spend more on a premium, single‑player experience. Rosier noted that the arrival of GTA VI will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, meaning that some developers are strategically shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s juggernaut. This phenomenon is common when a blockbuster dominates consumer attention; studios prefer to release when the market isn’t saturated with a high‑profile title, thereby preserving their own sales potential.
When asked whether the market would experience a sharp "GTA bump" in 2026 that might normalize in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto brand. "The catalogue value of GTA is immense; the story doesn’t end with the 2026 launch," he explained.
"We can’t predict exactly how GTA Online will evolve in the coming months, as Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about its roadmap. We do know there will be a transition period between the current online ecosystem and whatever new features accompany GTA VI, and that transition will generate substantial revenue on its own." Looking ahead to 2027, Newzoo’s forecast incorporates the PC release of GTA VI as another major revenue driver.
However, Rosier cautioned that the firm lacks concrete details about Take‑Two’s plans, so the projection relies heavily on historical patterns observed with previous GTA launches. Regarding pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for GTA VI is unusually low. "When a single title commands such a dominant position, consumers are less sensitive to price changes," he said.
"The game’s price point sets a benchmark that often lifts the entire market. Indie titles, for instance, have seen their average price creep up from $20 to around $30, reflecting a broader willingness to spend more across the board." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile remains the dominant platform worldwide, accounting for 57% of total gaming revenue in 2026—approximately $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher player spending, the expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts, and continued innovation in mobile game design and monetisation strategies. In the lead‑up to the launch, GTA VI pre‑orders generated an impressive $260 million in the first week they became available, underscoring the title’s massive anticipation and the effectiveness of Rockstar’s marketing engine.
This early revenue stream not only contributes to the overall financial outlook for the console market but also signals strong consumer confidence in premium, narrative‑driven experiences. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console ecosystem that is heavily dependent on two key factors in 2026: the release of Grand Theft Auto VI and the introduction of the Nintendo Switch 2.
Without GTA VI, console revenues would likely plateau or even dip, while the Switch 2 provides a modest but meaningful boost. The broader gaming landscape continues to be dominated by mobile, yet the console segment remains a vital pillar, especially when anchored by blockbuster releases that can drive both direct sales and ancillary spending across online services, downloadable content, and future platform upgrades.
The interplay of these forces will shape the industry’s financial health well beyond 2026, setting the stage for the next wave of growth in 2027 and beyond.