Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios – the team behind Helldivers 2 – recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transition. He argued that the formulas that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have lost their relevance in today’s market. "Sometimes there’s a sense of doom and gloom, but overall the industry is healthy," Jorjani noted. "What has changed is the foundation of the assumptions we built our business cases on.
The playbooks that served us from 2010 to 2020 simply don’t work any longer. The bottom line has been stripped from every forecast. No one could guarantee a title’s sales, and now you have to subtract that assumed figure entirely – that’s the new reality." Jorjani identified several forces driving this shift. One of the most visible is the continued rise of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region.
This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live, for example, highlighted the growing capabilities of studios in China and South Korea, underscoring a trend that has been gathering momentum for roughly a decade. "Asian games and companies have been gradually entering the Western market for ten years, but now we’re seeing a steady stream of titles that are genuinely competitive," he said. China, in particular, appears to have reached a tipping point in terms of the quality and ambition of its output. While the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric – a factor that shapes design sensibilities – the speed at which games are produced is accelerating, and Jorjani believes artificial intelligence is a key catalyst.
"AI is pushing the development timeline faster and faster everywhere," he explained, noting that the technology enables studios to iterate more quickly and generate content at unprecedented rates. The emergence of AI, however, adds another layer of unpredictability. Jorjani compared AI to earlier hype cycles such as virtual reality, but argued that its impact is more structural.
He observed a stark cultural divide in how the technology is embraced. In the West, developers grapple with ethical questions, data‑training rights, and artistic integrity, often debating whether AI should be allowed to influence creative work. In contrast, many Eastern studios appear less concerned with these debates, treating AI as a pragmatic tool rather than a philosophical dilemma.
"In the West we’re having an existential crisis about the role of AI in art," Jorjani said. "In the East, it’s just another piece of software that gets the job done." Beyond AI, Jorjani highlighted the challenge posed by the lengthy development cycles of AAA titles.
Large‑scale projects can span five to six years, involve multiple teams across different time zones, and demand substantial financial commitments. This reality has nudged Western publishers toward leaning on established franchises rather than investing heavily in new intellectual property. "When development times are long and the market is volatile, you need a brand that reduces risk," he explained.
Recognisable names give players a clear expectation of what they’re buying, which helps mitigate the fear of investing in an untested concept. He also pointed out the phenomenon of "analysis paralysis" that arises when consumers are bombarded with an ever‑growing catalogue of releases. While gamers might be aware of long‑standing series like Worms, they may struggle to evaluate dozens of newly announced titles.
Jorjani cited Steam data showing that roughly half of the games played on the platform are older than 18 months, indicating that players often gravitate toward familiar experiences rather than chasing brand‑new IPs. This behaviour, he argued, benefits studios that have already secured a foothold with a recognizable brand – a fortunate position Arrowhead found itself in after the success of Helldivers. Jorjani used the examples of Riot Games and Supercell to illustrate how larger companies can afford to spread risk across multiple projects, allowing one hit to subsidise the others.
Indie developers, however, can exploit a different advantage: rapid early validation. "The secret sauce of any successful game is getting feedback as early as possible," he said. "When you put a prototype or even a short GIF in front of players and they respond positively, you know you’re on the right track and can iterate quickly." Indie studios often operate on much shorter cycles and are more open about sharing progress.
Jorjani recalled the indie title Tiny Glade, which gained momentum after early animated previews went viral week after week. By contrast, a four‑year development timeline forces a studio to wait until the product is finished before launching a major marketing push, which can be a costly gamble.
Arrowhead is planning to adopt this early‑validation mindset for its next project. The studio intends to involve a select group of dedicated Helldivers fans early in the process, gathering data on their preferences – such as a love for alien themes – to fine‑tune the game’s direction.
This approach mirrors tactics used by mobile developers, who frequently test concepts through ad campaigns to see which ideas resonate most with audiences. "We’ll put the game in the hands of about a hundred Helldivers players right away and ask them what other IPs they enjoy," Jorjani explained. "If they’re fans of aliens and enjoy our style, that tells us we’re hitting the right niche.
It’s about learning early, not waiting two years for broad user testing." In concluding remarks, Jorjani warned that clinging to old playbooks – keeping projects secret for years before a big reveal – will no longer suffice. The industry now rewards transparency, rapid iteration, and a willingness to experiment with new technologies and market strategies.
As the landscape continues to evolve, studios that can adapt quickly, leverage emerging AI tools, and tap into the growing influence of Asian developers are likely to thrive, while those that rely on outdated assumptions may find themselves left behind.