Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios – the studio behind Helldivers 2 – recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transition. He argues that the playbooks that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have largely lost their relevance in today’s market. "There have been moments of doom‑and‑gloom, but overall the industry is healthy," Jorjani said.
"What’s changed is that the assumptions we built our business cases on have been upended. The formulas that worked from 2010 to 2020 simply don’t apply any longer. The bottom line has vanished from every projection. In the past you could say, ‘We expect a game to sell X copies.’ Now you have to subtract that X entirely – that’s the new reality." He identified several forces driving this shift.
One of the most visible is the continued rise of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region. This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live highlighted the capabilities of studios from China and South Korea, underscoring how Asian games are increasingly breaking into Western markets.
"For a decade we’ve seen a steady influx of Asian titles into the West, but now it feels like a wave – game after game after game is making a mark," Jorjani noted. He added that Chinese developers, in particular, appear to have reached a tipping point in terms of quality and ambition. "China’s output is definitely picking up," he said. "There’s still a way to go, but the sensibilities are evolving.
The domestic market is still heavily mobile‑centric, which shapes design choices, yet the speed of development is accelerating. AI is a big catalyst for that acceleration, because it enables studios to produce content faster than ever before." Artificial intelligence, Jorjani emphasized, is the most unpredictable variable on the horizon. While previous hype cycles – virtual reality, for instance – eventually settled into niche roles, AI is reshaping the entire production pipeline, from asset generation to testing.
The technology’s adoption, however, varies dramatically between regions. "In the West we’re wrestling with ethical questions: Is it okay to train models on existing art? Should we regulate AI‑generated content? Those debates slow us down," he explained.
"In the East, the conversation is almost non‑existent – developers simply use AI because it works and it’s efficient. It’s a pragmatic approach: if you’re writing functional code, you don’t have the same artistic concerns you have when you’re crafting an experience meant to connect with people." Jorjani acknowledged that Western creators may experience an "existential crisis" as AI blurs the line between art and automation.
He described himself as both an artist and a technologist, noting that the West’s more cautious stance will likely result in a slower but still inevitable uptake of AI tools. Beyond technology, the sheer length of AAA development cycles remains a major risk factor. Large‑scale titles often require five to six years of work, coordinated across multiple studios and time zones.
This long horizon makes investors nervous, prompting many publishers to lean on established franchises rather than gamble on new intellectual property. "Development timelines are still massive," Jorjani said.
"When you know the market is shifting, you need a very solid bet. Brand recognition is the best risk mitigator we have. If players know the name, they know roughly what they’re getting, which reduces uncertainty." He pointed out that the flood of new releases creates "analysis paralysis" for consumers. While a classic series like Worms instantly signals its style and expectations, dozens of fresh titles debut each month, making it hard for players to decide where to invest their time and money.
Data from Steam shows that a significant portion of playtime still goes to games that are more than 18 months old, indicating a preference for familiar experiences over untested concepts. Jorjani highlighted how companies such as Riot Games and Supercell manage portfolios with multiple projects in development, yet only one or two become breakout hits.
This dynamic, he argued, gives indie studios a strategic edge because they can iterate quickly and validate ideas early. "The secret sauce for any successful game is early validation," he asserted.
"The faster you can put something in front of a player and get positive feedback, the sooner you know you’re on the right track and can iterate. Indie teams excel at this because their cycles are short and they share progress openly – a GIF here, a demo there. When a community reacts positively, you have a clear signal to keep going." Arrowhead is applying this philosophy to its next project.
Inspired by mobile‑game practices, the studio plans to expose concepts to consumers through short‑form ads and micro‑tests, gauging which ideas resonate before committing to full production. "We’ll hand the early prototype to a select group of 100 Helldivers fans and ask them about their favorite IPs and gameplay preferences," Jorjani explained. "If they love aliens, enjoy Helldivers, and respond positively to our new concept, we know we have a hit.
If the control group likes Helldivers but not the alien theme, that tells us we need to adjust. This kind of granular, early‑stage feedback is far more valuable than a massive marketing push after a four‑year development cycle." He concluded by urging the industry to abandon the old habit of keeping projects under wraps for years and then unveiling them with a big splash. Instead, he advocates a transparent, iterative approach that leverages community input from the outset. "The old playbook of hiding your cards until the final reveal no longer works," Jorjani said.
"If you want to succeed in this rapidly changing landscape, you need to get your game into players’ hands early, listen, and iterate. That’s the future for both indie creators and larger studios alike."