GTA 6: The Key to Solving the PS4 Conundrum

A common phrase circulating within the gaming industry is 'Survival until 2025.' The expectation is that next year will mark a significant turnaround for the gaming business, following two years of declining sales and widespread layoffs. Several factors contribute to this optimism, including the anticipated economic recovery, decreased inflation rates, and the launch of new Nintendo consoles, all of which are expected to boost consumer spending and investment in the gaming sector. Furthermore, the release of Grand Theft Auto 6 is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for the video game industry, potentially becoming the largest entertainment launch of all time. This highly anticipated game is expected to draw attention to the industry, drive retail sales, increase traffic for gaming media, and stimulate hardware sales. However, not all game publishers and developers will benefit from GTA 6's release, as it may overshadow other games and live service games may experience a decline in average playtime. Some industry insiders hope that GTA 6 will help address the 'PS4 problem,' which refers to the fact that many engaged users are still playing on the older PS4 console rather than upgrading to the PS5. According to Sony, 50% of its audience continues to game on the PS4, even as the PS5 approaches its fourth anniversary. This phenomenon is partly due to the popularity of live service titles. A recent playtime chart by Newzoo shows that the most played PlayStation games are primarily available on PS4, with the exception of Ubisoft's XDefiant. Minecraft, although available on PS5, has only been accessible as a PS4 version download until now. Market analysts Ampere report that out of the 20 million+ active GTA Online users, the PS4 remains the most active platform by a significant margin. This situation presents both a challenge and an opportunity for PlayStation. While the continued popularity of PS4 games reduces the need for consumers to upgrade their hardware, particularly during economic uncertainty, it also means that PlayStation can capitalize on the eventual upgrade of its PS4 user base to PS5. This is where Grand Theft Auto 6 could play a crucial role in convincing gamers to upgrade. As developers navigate the transition between old and new hardware, Rockstar will also need to contend with this challenge. According to Ampere's lead games analyst Piers Harding-Rolls, by the time GTA 6 launches, a significant portion of GTA Online gamers will have transitioned to the latest consoles, but a substantial number will still be playing on older devices and PC. As such, Rockstar will need to maintain multiple communities as the user base splits following the launch of GTA 6. If any game can prompt players to upgrade, it is Grand Theft Auto. With potential plans for upgraded and handheld versions of the latest consoles, 2025 may be a significant year for the future of gaming consoles, even before considering Nintendo's plans. This situation raises broader questions about the future of console generations and what PlayStation 6 might look like. With gamers taking five years or more to transition between generations and AAA games requiring four or five years to develop, the traditional seven-year generational cycle may no longer be effective. For now, the opportunity for PlayStation lies in convincing its remaining fans to upgrade from their DualShocks to DualSense controllers, and all eyes are on Grand Theft Auto 6 to make this happen.