According to Newzoo’s latest market outlook, the console segment would have shown virtually no growth in 2026 if it weren’t for the release of Grand Theft Auto VI. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that Rockstar’s highly anticipated crime‑action title is the single catalyst capable of delivering any positive year‑on‑year change for the hardware market this year. Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another important contributor, but he made clear that the GTA VI launch is the dominant force. "There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which is going to drive the market up," Rosier said.
He added a hypothetical scenario to illustrate the point: "If in 2026, let’s say Grand Theft Auto VI wasn’t coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report backs up those statements with hard numbers. The firm forecasts console revenue to climb 5.1 percent in 2026, reaching $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5 percent, a rate Newzoo describes as the "strongest growth of any business model" in the sector. Rosier also warned that the blockbuster’s launch will be "cannibalistic" to other titles.
He noted that many developers have deliberately shifted their release windows to avoid direct competition with GTA VI, a strategy that underscores the game’s market‑shaping power. When asked whether the surge in sales driven by GTA VI would be a one‑off spike that might normalize in 2027, Rosier replied that the franchise’s enduring strength as a catalogue property means its influence will extend well beyond the initial launch window.
"The story doesn’t end at the end of 2026," he said. The analyst admitted that details about the future of GTA Online remain uncertain. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," Rosier explained.
"We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when it will fit between the current GTA and the new GTA. We know it’s also generating a lot of revenue. Our forecast for 2027 includes the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI on PC, so that’s a big driver obviously.
But we have no information of any kind. We’re just looking at the past and how things unfolded for the previous Grand Theft Auto title." Discussing pricing, Rosier observed that the GTA VI price point is likely to set a new benchmark for premium games. He explained that when a flagship title commands a higher price, it can lift the overall price floor across the market, even affecting indie titles.
"The price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI," he said. "Everyone’s been waiting so long. It doesn’t mean that everyone can do that, but usually when the top pricing increases, it lifts the market; the indie game became $30 rather than $20. The prices are being lifted a little bit." While consoles receive the spotlight in this discussion, Newzoo’s report reiterates that mobile remains the dominant revenue generator in the global games industry.
Mobile is projected to capture 57 percent of total gaming revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8 percent increase from the previous year. This growth is driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets. In a related data point, Newzoo previously estimated that GTA VI pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in the first week after they opened. That early influx of cash underscores the title’s magnetic pull and helps explain why its release is such a pivotal event for the console ecosystem.
In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant in 2026, buoyed primarily by two forces: the anticipated Nintendo Switch 2 and the release of Grand Theft Auto VI. The latter not only promises a sizable uplift in full‑game spending but also reshapes pricing dynamics and competitive scheduling across the industry.
Meanwhile, mobile gaming continues its ascent, solidifying its position as the largest revenue source worldwide. All of these factors combine to create a nuanced outlook where a single blockbuster can tip the balance between flat growth and modest expansion for the console segment.