In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially flat‑line in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. According to Rosier, the much‑anticipated crime‑action saga is the single most powerful catalyst that will prevent a year‑on‑year decline for console manufacturers and publishers.
He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another important contributor to the sector’s modest growth, but made clear that the bulk of the uplift can be traced directly to GTA VI. "There are two main forces shaping the console landscape right now: the launch of the Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI," Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz.
"If GTA VI weren’t arriving in 2026, we would be looking at a contraction in console revenue across the board. The title is effectively propping up the entire ecosystem and delivering positive growth where we would otherwise see a dip." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s assessment. The firm forecasts a 5.1% increase in total console revenue for 2026, bringing the figure to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a rate that Newzoo describes as the strongest expansion among all business models in the industry.
This surge is expected to ripple through ancillary markets, including downloadable content, micro‑transactions, and the ever‑popular GTA Online component, although the exact trajectory of the online service remains uncertain. Rosier cautioned that the massive draw of GTA VI will inevitably be "cannibalistic" to other releases. Many developers have already shifted their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster, a strategy that underscores the game’s market‑shaping power. When asked whether the 2026 spike would be a one‑off "GTA bump" that might normalize in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the franchise.
"Grand Theft Auto is a catalogue title with a long tail," he explained. "The story doesn’t end in 2026; the brand continues to generate revenue through updates, online play, and future platform releases." Looking ahead, Newzoo’s outlook for 2027 includes the PC debut of GTA VI, which is expected to be another major revenue driver. However, Rosier admitted that Take‑Two Interactive has been tight‑lipped about its roadmap for GTA Online, leaving analysts to infer future trends from past performance. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," he said.
"We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not communicated the timing, so we are essentially looking at historical patterns to gauge the impact." The conversation also touched on pricing dynamics. Rosier noted that the price elasticity for GTA VI is exceptionally low—there is only one title, and demand is inelastic. "When a flagship game commands a premium price, it tends to lift the entire market," he observed.
"We’ve seen indie titles inch up from $20 to $30 as the top‑end pricing rises, creating a modest upward pressure on average spend per player." While consoles are poised for modest growth, Newzoo reaffirmed that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide. The firm projects mobile to capture 57% of global gaming revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the maturation of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. This continued dominance underscores the diversification of the gaming ecosystem, even as console sales rely heavily on marquee releases like GTA VI. In addition to the projected revenue impact, Newzoo disclosed that GTA VI pre‑orders alone generated $260 million in the first week after they opened, illustrating the immediate financial firepower of the franchise.
This early influx of cash not only validates the hype surrounding the game but also sets a precedent for how future high‑profile releases might shape market dynamics. Overall, the data suggests that without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI, the console market would likely have experienced stagnation or even a slight decline in 2026. The combination of a strong new console offering from Nintendo and the unparalleled draw of Rockstar’s flagship title creates a rare convergence of factors that together push the sector into modest growth. As the industry looks toward 2027, analysts will be watching closely to see whether the momentum generated by GTA VI can sustain itself across platforms and whether other publishers can replicate its market‑moving influence.