Sony Initiates the Industry's Non-E3 Season with a Subdued Tone

As the gaming industry enters its Not-E3 season, the landscape feels like an archaeological site where the original structure is gone, but its shape can be inferred from the gaps it has left behind. The absence of E3 has led to a plethora of events and showcases, which will provide a trade show's worth of announcements and updates on upcoming games over the next two weeks. This period remains the best time to gauge the industry's temperature and understand its trajectory for the next 12 months. Sony kicked off this season with a State of Play presentation, showcasing upcoming PS5, PSVR2, and PC games. Establishing the bar for others to follow, Sony's presentation highlighted its market leadership, but also raised concerns about its focus on live-service games. The event dedicated a significant amount of time to Concord, a live-service PVP hero shooter, which may have alarmed some core consumers who fear that Sony is pivoting towards live service at the expense of high-quality single-player titles. The inclusion of three more live-service type games, Marvel Rivals, Infinity Nikki, and Ballad of Antara, further fueled these concerns. While the industry's economic constraints may justify the shift towards live-service games, the risks associated with this model are significant, and recent failures have demonstrated that even expensive licenses do not guarantee success. Sony's strong focus on live-service games will likely be replicated by other publishers and platform holders in the coming weeks. The trend of introducing live-service sequels or spin-offs to formerly single-player series will be particularly noteworthy, as it may lead to significant brand risks. However, Sony's partnerships with Asian developers, particularly in China, may provide a competitive edge, as evident from the success of Genshin Impact and Stellar Blade. In contrast, Microsoft's upcoming Xbox showcase will be closely watched, as the company needs to regain momentum and demonstrate exciting developments with its acquired studios and IP. Microsoft has more to prove than its rival, and a strong showcase could help reset its negative narratives and provide an edge over PlayStation in consumer perception. Overall, the muted tone set by Sony is likely to be the rule rather than the exception, as the industry grapples with the consequences of recent layoffs and the loss of development capacity.