If Grand Theft Auto VI does not arrive in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with the previous year, according to Newzoo’s market intelligence chief Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026, Rosier emphasized that Rockstar’s flagship open‑world crime saga is the single most significant catalyst that will prevent the console segment from slipping into a year‑on‑year decline. He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another important, albeit secondary, driver of the platform’s modest growth.
"Two factors are shaping the current and future health of consoles: the launch of Switch 2 and, above all, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year," Rosier explained. "Without GTA VI, the console market would actually contract in 2026. The title is the engine that will push the sector into positive territory." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report quantifies this optimism. The firm forecasts a 5.1 percent increase in console revenue for 2026, taking the total to roughly $46.9 billion.
Within that uplift, Grand Theft Auto VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5 percent, making it the strongest growth engine among all business models tracked by Newzoo. Rosier also warned that the massive pull of GTA VI will inevitably cannibalise sales of other titles. He noted that many developers have deliberately shifted their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster, a strategy that underscores the game’s market‑shaping power.
When asked whether the 2026 surge would be a one‑off "GTA bump" that might level off in 2027, Rosier argued that the franchise’s enduring catalog value means the impact will extend well beyond the launch year. "The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalog title is enormous," he said. "The story doesn’t end in 2026. We don’t yet know how GTA Online will evolve in the coming months, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about any transition plans.
What we do know is that the title continues to generate substantial revenue, and our 2027 outlook already assumes the PC release of GTA VI, which will be another major driver." Regarding pricing, Rosier pointed out that the price elasticity for GTA VI is remarkably low. "There is only one GTA VI, and everyone has been waiting for it for years," he noted. "When a premium title raises its price, it often lifts the entire market. We’ve already seen indie games nudging up from $20 to $30, reflecting a broader trend of modest price inflation across the board." While consoles receive a boost from GTA VI and the Switch 2, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile remains the dominant revenue generator in the global games ecosystem.
Mobile gaming is expected to capture 57 percent of total industry revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8 percent year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. The report also revisits the pre‑order performance of GTA VI. In the first week after pre‑orders opened, the title generated approximately $260 million in revenue, signaling strong consumer appetite even before the game’s official release. This early financial success foreshadows the substantial contribution GTA VI is likely to make to the overall console market in 2026.
In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console sector that would otherwise stagnate without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI. The combination of a highly anticipated flagship release and the launch of a next‑generation handheld from Nintendo creates a modest but meaningful growth trajectory for consoles, while mobile continues to dominate the broader gaming revenue landscape. The data suggests that the industry will watch closely how GTA VI’s lifecycle unfolds, especially as Take‑Two navigates the transition to GTA Online and prepares for the PC launch, both of which could further shape revenue patterns in the years to come.