In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially break even in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. According to Rosier, the upcoming open‑world crime saga is the single most powerful catalyst that will keep console revenues from slipping year over year. He also highlighted the anticipated launch of Nintendo’s next‑generation handheld, the Switch 2, as a secondary, but still significant, contributor to the sector’s performance.
"Two main forces are shaping the console landscape right now: the arrival of Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI," Rosier explained to GamesIndustry.biz. "If GTA VI were to be postponed or cancelled, we would likely see a decline in console revenue across the board. The title is acting as a growth engine for the entire platform ecosystem in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report reinforces Rosier’s comments, projecting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for the year, taking the total to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, Grand Theft Auto VI is forecast to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, making it the strongest growth driver among all business models tracked by the firm.
The impact of GTA VI is expected to be both direct and indirect. Rosier noted that the blockbuster’s release will likely cannibalise sales of other high‑profile titles, prompting many developers to shift their launch windows to avoid direct competition.
This strategic scheduling could reshape the release calendar for a variety of genres, from first‑person shooters to indie adventures, as studios attempt to capture consumer attention before the GTA VI hype peaks. When asked whether the market would experience a sharp "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the franchise. "Grand Theft Auto has a deep catalogue and a loyal fan base," he said. "The revenue lift doesn’t stop at the launch window; the title continues to generate income through post‑launch content, online services, and microtransactions." Rosier was candid about the uncertainty surrounding GTA Online’s future.
"We don’t have concrete information on how Take‑Two will transition from the current online ecosystem to the new version that will accompany GTA VI on PC in 2027," he remarked. "The company has been tight‑lipped, so our forecasts are based on historical patterns rather than insider data." Pricing dynamics also play a role in the market outlook. Rosier observed that the price elasticity for GTA VI is unusually low because there is only one flagship title in the franchise at any given time. "When a premium‑priced game like GTA VI launches, it tends to lift the overall price floor for new releases," he explained.
"We’ve already seen indie titles moving from $20 to $30, reflecting a broader willingness among consumers to spend more for high‑quality experiences." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator globally, accounting for 57% of total industry earnings in 2026—approximately $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher player spend and the maturation of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts, which give developers more control over pricing and distribution. The report also highlighted the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA VI.
In its first week of availability, pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in revenue, underscoring the massive anticipation surrounding the title and its capacity to inject significant cash flow into the console segment even before the game ships. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that is heavily reliant on a few marquee events to sustain growth. The combination of Nintendo’s Switch 2 rollout and the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI forms the backbone of the 2026 outlook.
While mobile continues to dominate overall revenue, the console segment’s health will largely hinge on how well these flagship releases perform and how effectively publishers manage pricing, release timing, and post‑launch support. The data suggests that without GTA VI, the console industry could face a flat or even declining revenue trajectory, emphasizing the outsized influence of blockbuster titles in today’s gaming ecosystem.