If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto 6 in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with its 2025 figures, according to Newzoo’s latest analysis. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that the upcoming GTA 6 title is the single most important catalyst for any growth in the console segment this year. He also highlighted the anticipated arrival of the Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but emphasized that without the blockbuster title the sector would likely see a year‑on‑year decline.
"Two main forces are shaping the console landscape right now: the next‑generation Switch and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto 6," Rosier said. "If GTA 6 were not on the schedule for 2026, we would be looking at a contraction in console revenue rather than the modest expansion we expect." Newzoo’s newly published Global Games Market Report projects console revenues to climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA 6 is forecast to lift full‑game spending by an impressive 17.5%, making it the strongest growth driver among all business models tracked by the firm.
Rosier noted that the title’s impact will be somewhat cannibalistic, pulling spending away from other releases and prompting many developers to shift their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship. When asked whether the surge in sales driven by GTA 6 would be a one‑off spike that might taper off in 2027, Rosier replied that the franchise’s enduring appeal suggests a longer‑term effect.
"The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is massive; the story doesn’t end in 2026," he explained. He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain, as Take‑Two has not disclosed its roadmap for integrating the online component with the new single‑player experience.
"We anticipate a transition at some point, but we lack concrete information on timing or how the two will coexist," Rosier said. "Our 2027 forecast does include the PC launch of GTA 6, which will be another major revenue driver, but we are essentially extrapolating from past patterns of previous GTA releases." Rosier also commented on the pricing strategy for GTA 6, noting that the market’s price elasticity is low because there is only one flagship title to buy. "When a premium title like this launches at a higher price point, it tends to lift the overall market," he observed.
"We’ve seen indie games move from $20 to $30, and that upward pressure on price is reflected across the board." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue source, accounting for 57% of global game sales in 2026—about $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher player spend and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets.
The firm also disclosed that GTA 6 pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the franchise’s massive hype and purchasing power. While the console segment benefits from the title’s release, the broader industry landscape shows a diversified revenue mix, with mobile leading, PC and cloud gaming gaining traction, and consoles holding a stable, albeit modest, share. In summary, Newzoo’s outlook paints a picture of a console market that would remain flat without the gravitational pull of Grand Theft Auto 6. The combination of the new Switch model and Rockstar’s flagship release creates a modest but meaningful uplift, pushing total console revenue to just under $47 billion for 2026.
The company cautions, however, that the long‑term health of the sector will depend on how publishers navigate release calendars, pricing strategies, and the evolving expectations of gamers who are increasingly accustomed to high‑budget, high‑price premium experiences.