According to Newzoo’s latest market outlook, the console segment would essentially break even in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that the upcoming GTA VI title is the singular catalyst capable of delivering any positive growth to the console ecosystem for the coming year. Rosier also highlighted the forthcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another important, albeit secondary, contributor to the platform’s performance. "Two main forces are shaping the console outlook right now: the arrival of the Switch 2 and, most critically, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI," Rosier told the press.
"If GTA VI were delayed or cancelled, we would actually see a year‑over‑year decline in console revenue. The game is acting as a growth engine for the entire segment in 2026." Newzoo’s newly published Global Games Market Report projects console revenue to climb 5.1 percent in 2026, reaching an estimated $46.9 billion. Within that figure, GTA VI is expected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by roughly 17.5 percent, a boost that Newzoo labels as the strongest growth rate among all business models in the industry. Rosier warned that the massive pull of GTA VI could be "cannibalistic" for other titles, noting that many developers are strategically shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster.
He added that the long‑term impact of the game extends beyond its initial release window, given the enduring popularity of the Grand Theft Auto franchise as a catalogue title. When asked whether the 2026 surge might be a one‑off spike that normalises in 2027, Rosier replied that the franchise’s staying power makes such a correction unlikely. "The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue brand means the story doesn’t end in 2026," he said. "We still don’t have concrete details about the future of GTA Online, but we know Take‑Two plans a transition that could affect revenue streams.
Our 2027 forecast already assumes the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another major driver, even though we lack precise information about timing or the exact mix between the existing online component and the new title." Rosier also touched on pricing dynamics, observing that the high price point of GTA VI demonstrates low price elasticity for marquee releases. "When a flagship title like GTA VI commands a premium, it tends to lift the overall market price floor," he explained.
"We’ve seen indie games move from $20 to $30, and that upward pressure is partially driven by the willingness of consumers to spend more on premium experiences." Beyond consoles, Newzoo reaffirmed that mobile remains the dominant revenue generator in the global games market. The report forecasts mobile to capture 57 percent of total industry revenue in 2026, translating to $121.1 billion—a 6.8 percent year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
In a related data point, Newzoo previously estimated that pre‑orders for GTA VI generated about $260 million in its first week of availability, underscoring the franchise’s ability to mobilise a massive audience even before the game hits shelves. Overall, the analysis suggests that while the console market is poised for modest growth, that expansion is heavily contingent on a single high‑profile release.
Without GTA VI, the sector would likely see flat or declining revenues, highlighting the outsized influence of blockbuster titles on the health of the broader console ecosystem. The upcoming Switch 2 will provide an additional boost, but the primary engine of growth remains Rockstar’s flagship crime‑simulation saga.