The Upcoming Harry Potter Live Service Game Will Be a Crucial Test

The prospect of a Harry Potter game as a service is intriguing, but its success is uncertain due to the challenges in the games-as-a-service space. Major gaming companies like Sony, Warner Bros, Ubisoft, EA, and Square Enix are investing in live service experiences, but not all can succeed. The latest Jimquisition, 'Live Services Are Being Sent To Die,' highlights the current state of affairs in the GAAS market. A key difference with the Harry Potter game is that it will be built around a massive franchise with a built-in audience, eliminating the need for universe building. However, the target market is already saturated with successful games like Hogwarts Legacy, which sold over 22 million units and was one of the best-selling games of 2023. The reason Warner Bros is embracing the GAAS model despite the success of traditional games is the potential for recurring revenue. The issue is that the live service model is tough, with growth in video game spending slowing down, and the pool of potential revenue is drying up. The philosophy 'if we build it, they will come' is no longer sufficient, as seen with the low retention numbers of Payday 3. New GAAS titles need to offer something original and compelling to attract gamers and retain them. The list of failed live service games is growing, and the success of GAAS titles like Minecraft, Fortnite, and Palworld is not guaranteed. The key factors for successful GAAS titles include compelling gameplay, simplicity, and perfected cosmetic microtransactions. The upcoming Harry Potter live service game will be a crucial test for the industry, as it will be built around a beloved franchise with a massive audience. The game's success will depend on its ability to balance fun, universe relevancy, monetization, and sustained player retention. The supply side of GAAS is also a concern, with constant additions of cosmetic, gameplay, and season passes DLC needed to sustain the audience. The cost of running a GAAS title can be higher than the returns in microtransaction revenues if the new content is not compelling. The established GAAS titles are doing well because they have won the hearts and wallets of their loyal audience. The economics of running a live service model, as seen with Roblox Corp., rely on microtransactions and a constant flow of new content. The company's losses are increasing despite growing revenue, and this economic model can be repeated with GAAS titles. In conclusion, the success of the Harry Potter GAAS will be a litmus test for the industry, and its failure could indicate a lack of future in releasing new GAAS titles.