Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios—the team behind Helldivers 2—recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transition. He argues that the formulas and expectations that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have lost their relevance in today’s market.
"There have been moments of pessimism, but overall the industry is healthy," Jorjani explained. "What’s changed is that the foundations of our assumptions have shifted dramatically. The playbooks that worked from 2010 to 2020 simply don’t apply anymore. The bottom line of every business case has been stripped away.
No one could guarantee a title’s sales, yet they would still project a certain figure. Take that number and subtract it to zero—that’s the new reality." He identified several forces driving this upheaval. One of the most visible is the continued rise of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region. This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live, for example, highlighted the impressive output of studios from China and South Korea.
"Asian games and companies have been making steady inroads into the West for the past decade," Jorjani said. "Now we’re seeing a steady stream of titles that are genuinely competitive on a global scale." China, in particular, appears to be reaching a tipping point in terms of quality.
While the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric—a factor that influences design sensibilities—the overall ambition and polish of Chinese games are accelerating. Jorjani noted that artificial intelligence is amplifying this speed, allowing studios to iterate and ship titles faster than ever before. AI, he argued, is the most disruptive technology the industry has faced since the advent of virtual reality.
Unlike previous hype cycles, AI is already reshaping development pipelines, content creation, and even business models. "In the West we’re debating ethics, data ownership, and artistic integrity," Jorjani observed. "In the East, the conversation is almost non‑existent—companies simply adopt AI because it works." He described the Western response as an "existential crisis" for creative teams. Developers who view games as an artistic medium worry that AI reduces their work to pure functionality.
Yet Jorjani predicts that, despite a slower uptake, the West will eventually follow the East’s pragmatic approach. Beyond technology, the sheer length of AAA development cycles remains a major obstacle to forecasting. Large‑scale projects often span five to six years and involve multiple studios spread across time zones.
This reality pushes publishers toward established franchises and away from risky new IPs, especially in Western markets. "When you have a long development horizon and a market that’s constantly shifting, you need a safety net," Jorjani explained. "Brand recognition is that safety net. Players know what they’re getting with a familiar name, which mitigates risk." He illustrated the point with the phenomenon of "analysis paralysis": with a flood of new releases, consumers can become overwhelmed.
Recognizable brands like Worms or Helldivers provide a shortcut—players can make quick decisions based on past experiences rather than researching every new title. Data from Steam Replay 2025 supports this, showing that roughly half of all Steam playtime is spent on games older than 18 months, and 44 % of user hours are on titles between one and seven years old.
While gamers vocalize a desire for fresh experiences, purchasing behavior still favors known entities and remakes. Jorjani highlighted companies such as Riot Games and Supercell as examples of studios that juggle multiple projects but only one becomes a breakout hit, allowing the others to fade into obscurity.
This dynamic, he believes, creates a strategic opening for indie developers. "The secret sauce for any successful game is early validation," he said. "The sooner you can show something to a real player and get positive feedback, the more confidently you can iterate.
Indie teams excel at this because their cycles are short and they share progress openly—sometimes just a GIF or a short demo. When that content resonates, it’s a clear signal they’re on the right track." Arrowhead is applying this philosophy to its next, as‑yet‑unnamed project.
Jorjani explained that the studio is borrowing tactics from mobile developers, who frequently test concepts through ad creatives and measure engagement before committing to full production. "We’ll get a prototype into the hands of a hundred Helldivers veterans as early as possible," he said.
"Then we’ll ask them about their favorite IPs, their preferences for alien themes, and compare their responses to a control group that loves Helldivers but not the alien setting. If the target slice of players rates the prototype higher, we know we’ve hit the sweet spot." This early‑testing mindset contrasts sharply with the traditional "keep the cards close to the chest" approach of AAA studios, where marketing pushes are saved for the final reveal after years of development.
Jorjani concluded that abandoning that old playbook is essential for navigating the new landscape. In summary, the gaming industry is being reshaped by three interlocking trends: the ascendancy of Asian developers, the disruptive influence of AI, and the persistent challenge of long development cycles.
While these forces introduce uncertainty, they also empower smaller, more agile teams. By embracing rapid feedback loops, focusing on niche audiences, and leveraging brand equity where it exists, developers—big and small—can adapt to a market where the old assumptions no longer hold true.