Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios – the studio behind Helldivers 2 – recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transition. He argued that the formulas that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have largely lost their relevance today.
"Sometimes there’s a sense of doom and gloom, but overall the industry is healthy," Jorjani said. "What’s changed is that the assumptions we built our business cases on have been upended. The playbooks that worked from 2010 to 2020 simply don’t apply any longer. The bottom line has been stripped from every forecast.
No one could guarantee a title would sell a certain amount, and now that number is effectively zero. That’s the new reality." Jorjani identified several forces driving this upheaval. First, the continued ascent of developers in the Asia‑Pacific region is reshaping the global market. This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live highlighted the capabilities of studios from China and South Korea, underscoring a trend that has been building for a decade but now feels inevitable.
"Asian games and companies have been making steady inroads into the West for ten years, and now it’s a constant stream of titles that are truly competitive," he noted. China, in particular, appears to have reached a tipping point in terms of production quality. Jorjani observed that while Chinese gamers remain largely mobile‑centric – a factor that influences design sensibilities – the overall pace of development is accelerating, partly because artificial intelligence is speeding up creation pipelines. "AI is making games appear faster and faster everywhere," he said, adding that the technology is compressing timelines that once stretched over several years.
The impact of AI, however, is not uniform across regions. In the West, developers are wrestling with ethical questions, data‑ownership concerns, and artistic integrity when integrating AI tools.
Jorjani contrasted this with the East, where studios appear less hesitant to adopt AI without extensive moral debate. "In the West we’re asking whether it’s ethical, whether companies should be allowed to train on certain data, and whether we should oppose it on ideological grounds.
In the East, there’s little hesitation – they just use it to get functional code done," he explained. This divergence, he suggested, could lead to a slower but inevitable uptake of AI in Western studios, while Eastern developers may gain a competitive edge through rapid experimentation. Beyond technology, the sheer length of development cycles for AAA titles remains a major obstacle to forecasting. Large‑scale projects often require five to six years and coordination across multiple time zones, prompting publishers to lean heavily on established franchises rather than gamble on new intellectual property.
"When you know development is long and the market is shifting, you need a bet that feels safe. Brand recognition is the primary risk mitigator," Jorjani said. He pointed out that players gravitate toward familiar names because they know what to expect, even if the new installment isn’t groundbreaking.
Data from Steam Replay 2025 shows that roughly 44 % of playtime is spent on games between one and seven years old, indicating a strong preference for existing titles over fresh IPs. This environment, however, creates an opening for indie developers. Jorjani highlighted that smaller studios can validate concepts early, receive immediate feedback, and iterate quickly – a luxury that long‑running AAA pipelines lack.
He cited the success of indie hit Tiny Glade, which gained momentum after the developers shared early GIFs that resonated with audiences week after week. "Early validation is the name of the game," he asserted. "If you can put something in front of a player early and get a positive reaction, you know you’re on the right track." Arrowhead itself is adopting this agile mindset for its next project. Inspired by mobile‑gaming practices that test concepts through ad performance, the studio plans to place a prototype directly into the hands of a carefully selected group of players.
Jorjani described a plan to give 100 dedicated Helldivers fans early access, then survey their preferences for related IPs and genres. By comparing responses from those who love aliens and Helldivers against a control group with different tastes, the team hopes to fine‑tune the game’s appeal before committing to a full‑scale launch.
In summary, Jorjani believes the industry’s old playbooks – long development cycles, reliance on blockbuster franchises, and cautious adoption of emerging tech – are no longer sufficient. The rise of Asian studios, the disruptive potential of AI, and the appetite for rapid, data‑driven validation are reshaping how games are made and marketed. While big publishers may continue to lean on recognizable brands to reduce risk, independent developers who can iterate swiftly and engage directly with their audience stand to gain a strategic advantage.
Arrowhead’s own shift toward early player feedback exemplifies this new paradigm, signaling that the future of gaming may be defined less by massive, multi‑year productions and more by nimble, community‑focused creation.