According to Newzoo’s latest market intelligence, the console segment would have shown virtually no growth in 2026 if it were not for the highly anticipated launch of Grand Theft Auto VI. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that Rockstar’s flagship crime‑action title is the single catalyst that will keep the console market from slipping into a year‑over‑year decline.
Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another important contributor to the modest uplift in console performance. "Two main forces are shaping the current and near‑future health of consoles: the arrival of Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which will push the market upward," Rosier said.
He added that without the GTA VI launch, the console platform would likely have experienced a negative growth trajectory, underscoring how crucial the title is for the industry’s financial outlook. Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report forecasts a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing total earnings to $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, GTA VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, making it the strongest growth driver among all business models tracked by the firm. This surge reflects both the massive fan base awaiting the game and the willingness of players to spend more on premium titles.
Rosier cautioned that the launch of GTA VI will likely be "cannibalistic" to other releases, a phenomenon that has already prompted many developers to shift their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster. The timing of a game as influential as GTA VI can reshape the entire release calendar, as studios seek to maximize visibility and revenue without being eclipsed by the genre‑defining title. When asked whether the 2026 market would experience a dramatic "GTA bump" followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto franchise.
"The catalogue value of Grand Theft Auto is enormous, meaning the impact doesn’t simply end when the game ships in 2026," he explained. He also noted the uncertainty surrounding the future of GTA Online, stating that Take‑Two has not disclosed a clear roadmap for the transition between the existing online component and the new title. "We know there will be a shift at some point, but the timing and the exact nature of that shift remain unknown," Rosier said.
Looking ahead to 2027, Newzoo’s forecast includes the PC launch of GTA VI, which is expected to act as another substantial revenue driver. However, the firm lacks concrete data on how the online ecosystem will evolve, so the projection relies heavily on historical patterns observed with previous Grand Theft Auto releases. Rosier also touched on pricing dynamics, noting that the price elasticity for a flagship title like GTA VI is extremely low.
"When a single, highly anticipated game commands a premium price, it can lift the overall market because consumers are willing to pay more for that experience," he said. He observed that the ripple effect often leads indie developers to raise their own price points, moving from the traditional $20 range to around $30, thereby nudging the entire market upward. Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide, accounting for 57% of total global game sales in 2026—approximately $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase.
This growth is driven by higher player spending, the expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts, and continued innovation in mobile game design and monetisation strategies. The report also highlighted the impressive pre‑order performance of GTA VI, which amassed $260 million in revenue within the first week of availability.
This early financial success underscores the game’s magnetic pull on consumers and its capacity to set the tone for the entire console market. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console industry heavily reliant on a single marquee release to achieve positive growth in 2026. While the Nintendo Switch 2 provides an additional boost, it is the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI that serves as the primary engine driving a 5.1% revenue increase and a 17.5% uplift in full‑game spending.
The broader gaming ecosystem, including mobile platforms and upcoming PC releases, continues to expand, but the console segment’s fortunes this year are intimately tied to Rockstar’s blockbuster title.