In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console segment would essentially break even in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI. According to Rosier, the much‑anticipated crime‑action title is the single most important catalyst for any growth in the console market this year.
He also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as a secondary driver that is currently bolstering console performance. "Two forces are shaping the console landscape right now: the launch of the new Switch and, of course, Grand Theft Auto VI," Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz. "If GTA VI were not arriving in 2026, we would actually see a year‑over‑year decline across the board.
The game is practically guaranteeing that consoles will post positive growth this year." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s comments, estimating that total console revenue will climb 5.1% in 2026 to reach $46.9 billion. Within that figure, GTA VI is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, a rate that Newzoo describes as the strongest growth among all business models in the industry.
This surge is expected to come from both the base game sales and the ancillary revenue streams that typically accompany a blockbuster launch, such as downloadable content, season passes, and micro‑transactions. Rosier also noted that the release of GTA VI will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, meaning that some developers are strategically shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship. This behavior underscores the game’s market‑dominant position; its presence can reshape the entire sales calendar for the year.
When asked whether the 2026 spike in revenue might be a one‑off bump that could normalize or even dip in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto franchise. "The catalogue value of GTA is massive," he said. "The story doesn’t end in 2026 – the title continues to generate revenue long after the initial launch, especially through GTA Online and future updates." Regarding GTA Online, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete information about the platform’s roadmap.
"We know a transition is coming, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about timing and how the new GTA will integrate with the existing online ecosystem," he explained. "Our 2027 forecast assumes a PC release of GTA VI, which will be another major revenue driver, but we’re essentially extrapolating from past patterns because we have no insider data." The analyst also addressed concerns about the price point of GTA VI. He argued that price elasticity for a title of this stature is unusually low.
"There is only one GTA VI, and demand has been building for years," Rosier said. "When a premium‑priced game hits the market, it often lifts the overall price floor for the industry. We’ve already seen indie titles nudging up from $20 to $30, and that ripple effect is partly due to the top‑end pricing set by blockbusters like GTA." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirmed that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide, accounting for 57% of total global gaming income in 2026.
That translates to roughly $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase driven by higher average spend per user and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets. The report also highlighted an impressive early‑sales figure for GTA VI: pre‑orders generated approximately $260 million in the first week after they opened.
This strong start is a clear indicator of the game’s pull and its capacity to influence broader market dynamics. In summary, Newzoo’s outlook paints a picture of a console market that would be largely stagnant without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI. The combination of the new Switch console and Rockstar’s flagship title is expected to push console revenues upward, while the broader industry continues to be dominated by mobile platforms.
Analysts will be watching closely to see how the game’s post‑launch performance, especially on PC and through online services, will shape the revenue trajectory in 2027 and beyond.