Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios – the team behind Helldivers 2 – told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transition. He argued that the formulas that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have largely lost their relevance in today’s market. "There have been moments of pessimism, but overall the industry remains healthy," Jorjani explained.
"What has changed is the foundation of the assumptions we built our business cases on. The playbooks that served us from 2010 to 2020 simply don’t work any longer. The bottom line of every financial model has been stripped away. In the past we could estimate a minimum sales figure for a title; now you have to subtract that number entirely and start from zero.
That is the new reality." He identified three major forces driving this shift. First, the continued rise of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region.
This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live highlighted the growing capabilities of studios in China and South Korea, underscoring a trend that Jorjani says has been building for a decade but has now reached a tipping point. "Asian games and companies have been gaining ground in the West for ten years, and now it’s a steady stream of releases that are genuinely competitive," he noted.
China, in particular, is producing higher‑quality titles than ever before. While the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric – a factor that shapes design sensibilities – the overall pace of production is accelerating, a trend Jorjani attributes in part to artificial intelligence. "AI is speeding everything up," he said, adding that developers can now generate assets, iterate on gameplay, and test concepts far more quickly than before. The second catalyst is AI itself, which Jorjani described as a "real change" rather than a fleeting hype cycle like virtual reality.
He observed a stark contrast between Western and Eastern attitudes toward the technology. In the West, developers grapple with ethical questions, data‑ownership concerns, and artistic integrity, often debating whether AI should be allowed to train on existing works. In the East, by contrast, there is a pragmatic embrace of AI with little moral hesitation.
"In the East, everyone has simply switched to AI because it works, without the ideological baggage that we see in the West," he explained. This divergence, he believes, will lead to a faster adoption curve in Asian studios, while Western companies may lag but will eventually catch up. The third factor is the sheer length of AAA development cycles. Large‑scale games still require five to six years of coordinated effort across multiple studios and time zones.
Because of that, publishers have leaned heavily on established franchises to mitigate risk, rather than investing in new intellectual property. "When development is that long, you need a brand that guarantees a baseline of sales," Jorjani said. "People know what they’re getting with a recognizable name, which reduces the gamble." However, the abundance of releases creates a new problem: analysis paralysis.
With countless titles launching each year, consumers can become overwhelmed and default to familiar series. Jorjani cited Steam data showing that a significant portion of playtime is spent on games older than 18 months, indicating that players often gravitate toward known brands rather than fresh experiences.
This dynamic, he argues, gives indie developers a strategic edge. Indies can validate ideas early and iterate rapidly.
"The secret sauce of any successful game is early validation," Jorjani asserted. He described how indie teams share prototypes, GIFs, or short videos on social media, gauge community reaction, and adjust direction accordingly. This approach contrasts sharply with a four‑year AAA cycle where feedback arrives only after a massive marketing push near launch.
By the time a big studio learns whether the market loves their product, the development budget may already be exhausted. Arrowhead itself is adopting an indie‑style validation process for its next project. The studio plans to place early builds directly into the hands of a curated group of Helldivers fans, collect detailed preference data, and use those insights to shape the game’s direction. "We’ll give the game to about a hundred core players, ask them about their favorite IPs, and see if our concept resonates with the subset that loves aliens and Helldivers," Jorjani explained.
This early‑feedback loop, he believes, will allow Arrowhead to hit a precise audience without waiting years for broader user testing. Jorjani also referenced the practices of mobile developers, who routinely test concepts through ad‑driven experiments, selecting the most engaging ideas for full production. "We’re borrowing that model – show the concept, measure response, double‑down on what works," he said.
In summary, Jorjani painted a picture of an industry where long‑standing assumptions have been upended by faster development tools, a surge of high‑quality Asian titles, and the disruptive potential of AI. While these forces introduce uncertainty, they also open doors for smaller studios that can move quickly, validate early, and target niche audiences with precision. Arrowhead’s own shift toward early player involvement exemplifies how a traditionally AAA‑oriented studio can adapt to the new landscape, shedding the old playbook of secrecy and delayed gratification in favor of transparency, rapid iteration, and data‑driven decision‑making.