Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios – the studio behind Helldivers 2 – recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transition. He argues that the formulas that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have largely lost their effectiveness, and that the entire foundation of how the industry predicts success has been upended. "Sometimes there’s been doom and gloom, but overall the games industry is doing well," Jorjani said.
"It’s just that the things we based our assumptions on have changed fundamentally. The playbooks used from 2010 to 2020 no longer work. The bottom has fallen out of every business case you had.
No one knew how well a game would sell, but they assumed it would sell at least this much. Whatever that number was, take a zero away. And that’s the reality." He identified several forces driving this shift.
First, the continued rise of developers in the Asia‑Pacific region is reshaping the global market. This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live, for instance, highlighted the growing capabilities of studios from China and South Korea.
"There’s always been a general rise of Asian games and companies into the West," Jorjani noted. "That’s been ongoing for the last ten years, but now it’s reached a point where it’s game after game after game that’s really making it." China, in particular, appears to have reached a tipping point in terms of quality. Jorjani observed that while the Chinese audience remains heavily mobile‑focused – a factor that influences design sensibilities – the overall speed of production is accelerating, partly thanks to artificial intelligence. "AI is accelerating this because more and more games are coming out faster and faster everywhere," he explained.
Artificial intelligence, according to Jorjani, is the most disruptive technology the industry has seen in recent memory. Unlike previous hype cycles such as virtual reality, AI is already altering development pipelines, content creation, and even business models. He highlighted a stark cultural divide in how the West and the East approach AI.
In Western markets, developers wrestle with ethical questions, data‑training rights, and artistic integrity. In contrast, many Eastern studios appear less concerned with those debates, adopting AI tools pragmatically to boost productivity.
"When you introduce AI to it, I understand that Western game developers have an existential crisis," he said. "I am an artist, and I’m also connecting with people on an artistic level, but when you make it into software, it’s just functional." Jorjani expects the West to adopt AI more slowly, but he believes the transition is inevitable.
He warned that the unpredictability introduced by AI makes long‑term forecasting especially difficult. Coupled with AI’s impact, another major challenge remains the length of AAA development cycles. Large‑scale titles often require five to six years and coordination across multiple studios and time zones.
This lengthy horizon forces publishers to lean on established franchises and recognizable brands to mitigate risk. "Development cycles are still long. If you know that and the market is changing, you need to be very certain that the bet you’re taking works," Jorjani said. "The only thing that really, really mitigates risk on that level is brand and recognisability.
People know what they’re getting, so you can offset that risk." He illustrated this point with the example of classic IPs such as Worms. Even if a new Worms title isn’t groundbreaking, its brand equity provides a safety net because players already understand the core experience.
Data from Steam Replay 2025 supports this observation: roughly 44 % of user playtime was spent on games aged between one and seven years, indicating that players often gravitate toward familiar titles rather than untested new IPs. While there is vocal demand for fresh experiences, actual purchasing behavior tends to favor remakes, sequels, or well‑known franchises. Indie developers, however, enjoy a strategic advantage in this environment. Jorjani pointed to companies like Riot Games and Supercell, which juggle multiple projects simultaneously; a single breakout hit can eclipse the rest of their pipeline.
For smaller studios, early validation is crucial. "The secret sauce to any successful game is early validation," he asserted. "The sooner you can get something in front of a person and get positive feedback, you know you’re on track, onto something, and you can iterate." Indie teams often share progress openly—posting GIFs, short videos, or prototype builds—and gauge community reaction. Jorjani recalled the rapid rise of the indie title Tiny Glade, which gained momentum after early GIFs went viral week after week.
In contrast, a four‑year AAA cycle that waits until the final product to launch a massive marketing push lacks that iterative feedback loop. Arrowhead itself is applying this philosophy to its next project. Inspired by mobile‑gaming practices, the studio plans to expose early concepts to a targeted group of players, gather granular preferences, and iterate quickly.
"We’ll probably put the game in the hands of 100 Helldivers players and ask them what their favourite IPs or games are," Jorjani explained. By segmenting the audience—identifying those who love aliens, enjoy Helldivers, and respond positively to early builds—the team can fine‑tune the experience before committing to a full‑scale production. He emphasized that this approach requires abandoning the old playbook of keeping development under wraps for years and then unveiling a polished product with a big splash.
Instead, Arrowhead aims to let the community shape the game from the outset, reducing risk and aligning the final product with a clearly defined niche. In summary, Jorjani believes the industry’s assumptions have been upended by three interrelated trends: the ascendancy of Asian developers, the disruptive potential of AI, and the persistent length of AAA development cycles. While these forces create uncertainty for large publishers, they also open doors for indie studios that can iterate rapidly, validate ideas early, and target specific player segments.
By embracing a more agile, community‑centric development model, Arrowhead hopes to stay ahead of the curve and deliver experiences that resonate with a dedicated audience, even as the broader market continues to evolve.