Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios—the studio behind Helldivers 2—recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transformation. He described the current moment as a "transitional phase" in which the playbooks that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have essentially become obsolete.
"Sometimes you hear doom‑and‑gloom narratives, but overall the industry is healthy," Jorjani said. "What has changed is the foundation of the assumptions we built our business cases on. The old formulas from 2010‑2020 no longer deliver.
The bottom line has vanished from every projection. In the past we could estimate a minimum sales figure for a title; today you have to subtract that figure entirely. That is the reality we face." Several forces are driving this shift.
One of the most visible is the continued rise of development talent in the Asia‑Pacific region. Jorjani pointed to this year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live as a showcase of the quality and ambition coming out of Chinese and South Korean studios. "There has always been a gradual influx of Asian games into Western markets, but over the last decade that trend has accelerated to the point where game after game from the region is breaking through," he explained. China, in particular, appears to have reached a tipping point in terms of production values and creative ambition.
"The quality is definitely improving," Jorjani observed. "There is still a way to go, but the sensibilities are evolving. The Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric, which influences design choices, yet the speed at which games are being released is increasing dramatically, and AI is amplifying that acceleration." Artificial intelligence, according to Jorjani, is the most disruptive technology the industry has seen in recent memory.
While past hype cycles—such as virtual reality—have fizzled, AI is reshaping development pipelines, asset creation, and even design iteration at a pace that makes long‑term forecasting extremely difficult. He highlighted a stark cultural divide in how the technology is embraced: "In the West, we are debating ethics, data ownership, and whether AI should be allowed to influence artistic expression. In the East, the conversation is largely absent; developers adopt AI tools wholesale because they simply work." Jorjani noted that this divergence creates an "existential crisis" for many Western creators. "As an artist, I care about connecting with players on a human level.
When you reduce a game to a piece of functional software powered by AI, the emotional component can feel secondary. That tension explains why Western studios may adopt AI more slowly, even though the eventual uptake is inevitable." Beyond technology, the sheer length of AAA development cycles adds another layer of uncertainty.
Large‑scale titles often require five to six years of work across multiple studios and time zones. This prolonged timeline makes publishers wary of investing in new intellectual property (IP) when market conditions can shift dramatically before a game even launches. As a result, many Western companies have leaned heavily on established franchises to mitigate risk.
"Development cycles remain long, and if the market is in flux you need a very solid bet," Jorjani said. "The only real safety net at that scale is brand recognition. Players know what they're getting with a familiar name, which reduces the perceived risk." He illustrated this point with the concept of "analysis paralysis" that afflicts modern gamers: with an ever‑growing flood of releases, consumers often default to titles they recognize.
"A game like Worms has been around for decades; you instantly know the experience. New IPs may be innovative, but they lack that immediate familiarity, and many players simply stick with what they know," he explained. Data from Steam Replay 2025 supports this, showing that roughly 44 % of playtime comes from games that are between one and seven years old, indicating a strong preference for established titles. Despite the dominance of legacy franchises, Jorjani believes indie developers possess a strategic advantage in this environment.
Smaller teams can iterate quickly, gather early feedback, and adjust direction without the inertia that plagues multi‑year AAA projects. "The secret sauce for any successful game is early validation," he asserted. "If you can put a prototype in front of players and get positive reactions, you know you’re on the right track and can iterate rapidly." He cited the success of indie hits like Tiny Glade, which generated buzz through short GIFs and community engagement long before a full launch. In contrast, a four‑year development cycle that waits until the final product to market can miss the optimal window for audience excitement.
Arrowhead itself is adopting this agile mindset for its next venture. The studio plans to borrow tactics from mobile developers, who frequently test concepts via in‑app advertisements to gauge consumer interest. Jorjani described a concrete plan: "We’ll give a prototype to a hundred dedicated Helldivers players, ask them about their favorite IPs and genres, and compare responses between those who love aliens and those who don’t. This early data will tell us whether we’re hitting the right niche before we invest years into full production." He emphasized that this approach requires abandoning the old habit of keeping a game under wraps for years and then unveiling it with a massive marketing splash.
"You have to let go of the traditional playbook of secrecy and instead embrace transparency and rapid iteration," Jorjani concluded. In summary, the gaming landscape is being reshaped by three intertwined forces: the ascent of Asian studios, the disruptive potential of AI, and the enduring challenge of long development timelines. While these trends introduce uncertainty, they also create opportunities for nimble indie creators who can validate ideas early and adapt swiftly. Arrowhead’s own strategy—leveraging early player feedback, borrowing mobile‑industry testing methods, and focusing on a well‑defined audience—exemplifies how studios can thrive amid the industry’s rapid evolution.