In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially break even in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) this year. According to Rosier, the upcoming open‑world crime saga is the single most powerful catalyst that will keep console revenue from slipping year over year.
He also highlighted Nintendo’s forthcoming Switch 2 as another important, albeit secondary, driver of console performance. "There are two main forces shaping the current and future health of the console ecosystem: the launch of Switch 2 and, of course, the arrival of Grand Theft Auto 6," Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz.
"If GTA 6 were not on the schedule for 2026, we would likely see a contraction in console sales compared with 2025. The title is providing the positive momentum that the platform desperately needs." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s assessment.
The report forecasts a 5.1% increase in total console revenue for 2026, taking the figure to roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA 6 is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, making it the strongest growth driver among all business models examined by the firm.
The impact of GTA 6 is expected to be multi‑dimensional. Rosier explained that the game’s release will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, meaning that some developers are already shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster. This strategic postponement underscores how dominant a single franchise can be in shaping release calendars across the industry.
When asked whether the surge in revenue associated with GTA 6 would be a one‑off spike that would normalize in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring strength of the Grand Theft Auto brand. "The catalogue value of GTA is enormous," he said. "The story doesn’t end in 2026; the title continues to generate sales through its online component and subsequent updates." Rosier also touched on the uncertain future of GTA Online, noting that Take‑Two Interactive has not disclosed a clear roadmap for the transition from the current online environment to the new iteration that will accompany GTA 6. "We know there will be a handover at some point, but Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about timing.
Our 2027 forecast assumes the PC launch of GTA 6, which will be another major revenue driver, but we lack concrete details beyond historical patterns." Pricing dynamics were another focal point of the discussion. Rosier observed that the price elasticity for a flagship title like GTA 6 is extremely low because there is essentially no direct substitute.
"When a premium title sets a higher price point, it tends to lift the overall market. Indie games, for instance, have seen their average price creep upward from $20 to $30," he explained.
"The willingness of consumers to pay reflects the long‑awaited nature of the release and the perceived value of the experience." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirmed mobile gaming’s dominance in the global market. Mobile platforms are projected to account for 57% of total game revenue in 2026, equating to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the maturation of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. This continued growth further contextualizes why console manufacturers are eager for a marquee title like GTA 6 to sustain their segment’s relevance. The hype surrounding GTA 6 was already evident during the pre‑order window.
Newzoo estimated that pre‑order sales generated roughly $260 million in the first week after they became available, illustrating the franchise’s capacity to mobilize a massive audience even before the game’s official launch. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise plateau in 2026 without the catalytic effect of GTA 6.
The combination of a new Nintendo console and the anticipated blockbuster from Rockstar are the twin pillars supporting modest growth. While the long‑term outlook remains contingent on factors such as the evolution of GTA Online and the timing of the PC release, the immediate outlook suggests that GTA 6 will be a pivotal revenue engine, not only for consoles but also for the broader gaming ecosystem.