According to Newzoo’s latest market intelligence, the console segment would essentially break even in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that the highly anticipated crime‑action title is the single most powerful catalyst keeping the console market on an upward trajectory.
Rosier also highlighted the forthcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another important contributor, but he made it clear that without GTA VI the industry would likely see a year‑on‑year decline. "There are two main drivers shaping the current and future health of consoles: the Switch 2 and, of course, the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 this year, which is set to lift the market," Rosier told the press.
"If GTA 6 weren’t arriving in 2026, the platform would be shrinking rather than growing. The game is effectively cushioning consoles from a negative trend." Newzoo’s newly released Global Games Market Report forecasts that console revenue will climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA 6 is expected to push full‑game spending up by 17.5%, a figure Newzoo labels as the strongest expansion among all business models in the sector. This surge reflects both the massive pre‑order numbers the title has already generated and the willingness of players to spend more on premium, high‑profile releases.
Rosier cautioned, however, that the arrival of GTA 6 could be "cannibalistic" for other titles. He noted that many developers are deliberately shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster, a strategy that underscores the game’s market‑dominant position. When asked whether the 2026 spike would be a one‑off bump that would normalize in 2027, Rosier replied that the strength of the Grand Theft Auto franchise extends far beyond a single release cycle. "The catalogue value of GTA is huge; the story doesn’t end in 2026," he said.
The analyst also addressed the uncertain future of GTA Online. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," Rosier admitted. "We know a transition is coming, but Take‑Two has not communicated a timeline, so we can only infer from past patterns. Our 2027 outlook does include the PC launch of GTA 6, which will be another major revenue driver, but we lack concrete details at this point." Regarding pricing, Rosier observed that Rockstar’s pricing power is significant because there is only one GTA 6 on the market.
"The price elasticity is very low; there’s no direct substitute," he explained. He added that when a flagship title raises its price, it often lifts the overall market, even influencing indie developers to increase their price points from $20 to around $30. This ripple effect can boost average revenue per user across the board.
While consoles receive a notable lift from GTA 6 and the Switch 2, Newzoo’s report reiterates that mobile remains the dominant platform globally. Mobile gaming is projected to generate $121.1 billion in 2026, accounting for 57% of total industry revenue and representing a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase. The growth is driven by higher player spend and the expanding reach of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. In the weeks following the announcement of GTA 6 pre‑orders, the title reportedly amassed $260 million in revenue within its first week of availability, underscoring the franchise’s ability to mobilize a massive audience quickly.
This early financial performance further validates Newzoo’s outlook that GTA 6 will be a pivotal factor in sustaining console growth throughout 2026. Overall, the data suggest that without the gravitational pull of Grand Theft Auto VI, the console market would likely have faced a contraction in 2026. The combination of a strong new console offering from Nintendo and the unparalleled draw of Rockstar’s flagship title creates a rare alignment of forces that is set to keep console revenues on an upward path, even as mobile continues to dominate the broader gaming landscape.