Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios—the team behind Helldivers 2—recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transition. He argued that the formulas that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have lost their potency in today’s market.
"Sometimes there’s been doom and gloom, but overall the games industry is doing well," Jorjani said. "It’s just that the things we based our assumptions on have changed fundamentally. The playbooks used from 2010 to 2020 no longer work.
The bottom has fallen out of every business case that you had. No one knew how well a game would sell, but they assumed it would sell at least this much. Whatever that number was, take a zero away. And that’s the reality." Jorjani identified several forces driving this shift.
One of the most visible is the continued rise of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region. This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live, for example, highlighted the capabilities of studios from China and South Korea, underscoring a broader trend that has been building for a decade.
"There’s always been a general rise of Asian games and companies into the West," he noted. "That’s been ongoing for the last 10 years, but now it’s reached a point where it’s game after game after game that’s really making it." China, in particular, appears to have hit a tipping point in terms of quality and ambition.
Jorjani observed that while the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric, that focus is accelerating the pace of development and influencing design sensibilities. "It is definitely picking up for sure," he said. "I think there’s still a way to go, but there are very different sensibilities to what makes the games tick as well. The Chinese audience is still primarily mobile‑driven.
That flavours the sensibilities, but it’s going faster. I think AI is accelerating this because more and more games are coming out faster and faster everywhere." Artificial intelligence emerged as another game‑changing factor. Jorjani warned that AI introduces a level of unpredictability that makes long‑range forecasting especially tricky.
He contrasted the West’s cautious, ethically‑charged debate about AI training data with the East’s pragmatic, almost indifferent adoption. "In the West, we’re asking if it is ethical and whether these companies are allowed to train on this data, and whether we should oppose it on ideological or artistic grounds.
Whereas in the East, they absolutely do not care whatsoever," he explained. He likened the situation to the broader tech industry, where many have embraced AI without moral qualms because the primary goal is functional code, not artistic expression.
Jorjani believes this cultural divide will affect the speed of AI integration. Western studios may experience an "existential crisis" as artists grapple with the notion that their craft is being reduced to functional software, but he expects the technology will eventually be adopted, albeit more slowly. "The West will be slower on the uptake, but the uptake will still happen," he asserted.
Beyond AI, the sheer length of AAA development cycles remains a major obstacle to agility. Large‑scale titles often require five to six years and coordination across multiple continents, prompting publishers to lean on established IPs rather than gamble on new concepts. Jorjani explained that this risk‑averse approach is reinforced by brand recognition: familiar franchises provide a safety net in an environment where consumer attention is fragmented.
He cited Steam data indicating that roughly half of all playtime is spent on games older than 18 months, highlighting a market that favors known titles over fresh experiences. This dynamic, however, creates an opening for indie developers.
Jorjani pointed to companies like Riot and Supercell, which juggle numerous projects simultaneously; a single breakout hit can eclipse the rest of their pipeline, allowing smaller studios to capture niche audiences. "The secret sauce to any successful game is early validation," he said. "The sooner you can get something in front of a person and get positive feedback, you know you’re on track, onto something, and you can iterate. That’s the strength of software development." Indie teams often operate with shorter cycles and more transparent communication.
They may share a GIF or a short demo publicly, gauge community reaction, and iterate rapidly—practices that are difficult for a four‑year AAA development timeline. Jorjani referenced the indie title Tiny Glade, which gained momentum after early visual teasers went viral week after week.
By contrast, a traditional AAA marketing push typically waits until the product is near completion, risking missed opportunities for early community engagement. Arrowhead itself is adopting this early‑feedback mindset for its upcoming project. The studio plans to involve a select group of dedicated Helldivers fans early in development, using their preferences to fine‑tune the game’s direction. Jorjani described a test where 100 Helldivers players would be asked about their favorite IPs and genres; those who love both aliens and Helldivers would be flagged as a high‑potential audience.
This data‑driven approach mirrors mobile‑gaming practices where concepts are validated through ad performance before full production begins. In summary, Jorjani paints a picture of an industry at a crossroads. Long development cycles, the ascent of Asian studios, and the disruptive potential of AI are reshaping how games are made, marketed, and consumed. While established franchises continue to dominate because they mitigate financial risk, the agility and community‑centric methods of indie developers provide a compelling alternative.
Arrowhead’s strategy—embracing early validation, leveraging brand loyalty, and staying attuned to global technological trends—illustrates how a mid‑size studio can navigate this turbulent landscape and position itself for success in the years ahead.