Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios – the team behind *Helldivers 2* – recently told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is undergoing a profound transitional period. He argued that the playbooks that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have largely lost their relevance, and that the assumptions underpinning many business cases have been upended. "Sometimes there’s been doom and gloom, but overall the games industry is doing well," Jorjani said. "It’s just that the things that we based our assumptions on have changed fundamentally.
The playbooks used from 2010 to 2020 no longer work. The bottom has fallen out of every business case that you had. No one knew how well a game would sell, but they assumed it would sell at least this much. Whatever that number was, take a zero away.
And that’s the reality." He identified three interlocking forces driving this shift. First, the continued rise of developers in the Asia‑Pacific region has altered the competitive landscape. This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live, for example, highlighted the technical and artistic capabilities of studios from China and South Korea, showcasing titles that could stand shoulder‑to‑shoulder with Western releases.
"There’s always been a general rise of Asian games and companies into the West," Jorjani noted. "That’s been ongoing for the last ten years, but now it’s reached a point where it’s game after game after game that’s really making it." China, in particular, appears to have arrived at a tipping point in terms of quality and ambition. While the Chinese market remains heavily mobile‑centric – a factor that influences design sensibilities – the speed at which new experiences are produced is accelerating, a trend Jorjani attributes in part to artificial intelligence.
"AI is accelerating this because more and more games are coming out faster and faster everywhere," he explained. The second catalyst is the emergence of AI as a transformative technology. Unlike earlier hype cycles such as virtual reality, which often failed to deliver on their grand promises, AI is already reshaping development pipelines, asset creation, and even design iteration. Jorjani observed a stark cultural divide in how the technology is embraced.
In the West, developers wrestle with ethical questions, data‑ownership concerns, and artistic integrity. "In the West, we’re asking if it is ethical and whether these companies are allowed to train on this data, and whether we should oppose it on ideological or artistic grounds," he said. Conversely, many Eastern studios appear less constrained by such debates, adopting AI tools with pragmatic speed. "In the East, they absolutely do not care whatsoever.
Everyone has shifted over to using AI completely and without any major moral qualms," Jorjani observed, likening the situation to his friends in the broader IT industry who have already made AI a core part of their workflow. He warned that Western studios might experience an "existential crisis" as they reconcile artistic ambition with the functional efficiency AI brings.
The third factor is the sheer length of development cycles for AAA titles. Large‑scale projects often span five to six years, involve multiple studios across different time zones, and demand massive financial commitments. This reality pushes publishers toward safer bets – established franchises and recognizable IPs – rather than investing in untested concepts. "If you know that and the market is changing, you need to be very certain that the bet you’re taking works," Jorjani said.
Brand recognition, he argued, is the primary risk mitigator in an environment where analysis paralysis threatens to overwhelm consumers. Data from Steam reinforces this point: a significant share of player hours is still spent on games that are more than a year old, and many users gravitate toward remakes or sequels rather than brand‑new experiences. Arrowhead’s own success with *Helldivers* was, in Jorjani’s view, a rare combination of luck and a distinct "secret sauce" that made the game instantly recognizable while still feeling fresh. Amid these macro trends, Jorjani sees a strategic opening for indie developers.
He highlighted companies like Riot Games and Supercell, which juggle multiple projects simultaneously; a single breakout hit can eclipse the rest, allowing smaller teams to capture attention without the burden of a multi‑year development timeline. "The secret sauce to any successful game is early validation," he asserted.
Indie studios can iterate quickly, sharing GIFs, prototypes, or short videos with the community and gauging reaction in real time. When a piece of content goes viral, it provides immediate feedback that can steer the project in a profitable direction. Arrowhead itself is adopting this agile mindset for its next venture. Inspired by mobile‑gaming practices that test concepts through ad performance, the studio plans to place early builds directly into the hands of a curated player group.
"We’ll probably put the game in the hands of 100 Helldivers players and then ask them what their favourite IPs or games are," Jorjani explained. By segmenting the audience – for example, players who love aliens and enjoy *Helldivers* – the team can measure whether the new title resonates with its target niche, rather than waiting for a broad, post‑launch survey. Jorjani concluded that abandoning the old playbook – which kept projects under wraps for years before a grand reveal – is essential.
Instead, developers must embrace transparency, rapid feedback loops, and a willingness to pivot based on player data. In his words, "It requires you to let go of that old playbook of playing your cards close to the chest for years, and then dazzle and razzle." In summary, the gaming industry is being reshaped by three converging forces: the ascendancy of Asian studios, the disruptive potential of AI, and the inertia of long development cycles. While these dynamics create uncertainty for traditional AAA publishers, they also open doors for smaller, more nimble creators who can validate ideas early, iterate quickly, and connect directly with a passionate, segmented audience. Arrowhead’s CEO believes that by internalising these lessons, the studio – and the wider industry – can navigate the coming years with greater confidence and creativity.