If Grand Theft Auto 6 had not been released in 2026, console‑related revenue would have essentially flat‑lined when compared with the figures from 2025. This stark assessment comes from Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, who shared his insights with GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026.
Rosier emphasized that Rockstar’s flagship crime‑action title is the single most significant catalyst for any positive growth in the console segment this year, and he also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as a secondary, but still important, contributor to the market’s performance. "There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto 6 this year, which is going to drive the market up," Rosier explained. "If in 2026, let's say Grand Theft Auto 6 wasn't coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report reinforces this viewpoint, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing the total to $46.9 billion.
Within that growth, Grand Theft Auto 6 is expected to lift full‑game spending by an impressive 17.5%, a rate Newzoo describes as the strongest expansion among all business models tracked in the industry. Rosier also warned that the massive pull of GTA 6 will likely be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a phenomenon that explains why many developers are shifting their release windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s blockbuster.
When asked whether the 2026 surge driven by GTA 6 would be a one‑off spike that might normalize or even dip in 2027, Rosier replied that the franchise’s enduring catalogue value makes a simple correction unlikely. "The strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title is huge, meaning that the story doesn’t end at the end in 2026," he said. He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," Rosier noted.
"We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when it will be the fit between current GTA and new GTA. We know it’s also generating a lot of revenue. Our forecast for 2027 includes the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 on PC, so that’s a big driver obviously.
But we have no information of any kind. We’re just looking at the past and how things unfolded for the previous Grand Theft Auto title." Discussing the pricing strategy for GTA 6, Rosier observed that the market often follows the lead of a dominant publisher.
He explained that price elasticity for a title like GTA 6 is extremely low because there is essentially only one version of the game at launch. "Everyone’s been waiting so long," he said. "It doesn’t mean that everyone can do that. But usually when the top pricing increases, it lifts the market; the indie game became $30 rather than $20.
The prices are being lifted a little bit." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report confirms that mobile gaming continues to dominate the global revenue landscape, accounting for 57% of total industry earnings in 2026—approximately $121.1 billion, a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase. This growth is driven by higher player spending and the expanding reach of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts on smartphones and tablets.
The report also highlighted the early commercial success of GTA 6 pre‑orders, which generated roughly $260 million in the first week after they became available. This early revenue stream underscores the strong consumer appetite for the title and further validates Rosier’s claim that the game is a primary engine of growth for the console market.
In summary, Newzoo’s data paints a picture of a console ecosystem that would have struggled to grow without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto 6. While the Nintendo Switch 2 adds a modest boost, the bulk of the projected 5.1% revenue increase stems from Rockstar’s blockbuster. The broader industry context shows mobile still reigns supreme in terms of total revenue, but the console segment’s health in 2026 is tightly linked to the performance of a single, high‑profile release. As the year progresses, analysts will watch closely to see whether the momentum generated by GTA 6 can sustain itself into 2027, especially as the game makes its way onto PC and as the industry adapts to any shifts in the GTA Online ecosystem.