If Rockstar Games does not launch Grand Theft Auto VI in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with its 2025 performance, according to Newzoo’s latest analysis. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, emphasized this point during an interview with GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, noting that the upcoming GTA VI title is the single most significant catalyst for any growth in the console segment this year. Rosier also highlighted the role of Nintendo’s forthcoming Switch 2 console as an additional, though secondary, driver of the sector’s health.
"There are two primary forces shaping the current and near‑future trajectory of console sales: the arrival of Switch 2 and, of course, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI, which will push the market upward," Rosier explained. "If GTA VI were not scheduled for 2026, we would likely see a year‑over‑year decline across the board. The game is effectively safeguarding consoles from a negative trend and delivering positive growth for the year." Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report corroborates Rosier’s remarks, forecasting a 5.1% increase in console revenue for 2026, bringing total earnings to roughly $46.9 billion.
Within that figure, Grand Theft Auto VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5%, a rate that Newzoo identifies as the strongest growth among all existing business models in the industry. Rosier cautioned, however, that the blockbuster’s impact will not be uniformly positive across all titles. He suggested that GTA VI’s launch will likely be "cannibalistic" to other releases, prompting many developers to shift their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship. This strategic postponement underscores the game’s market‑shaping power and the extent to which publishers are willing to rearrange their schedules to preserve sales momentum.
When asked whether the 2026 surge driven by GTA VI would be a one‑off spike that might normalize in 2027, Rosier replied that the franchise’s longevity makes such a scenario unlikely. "Grand Theft Auto is a catalogue title with enduring appeal," he said. "The story doesn’t end in 2026; the ecosystem surrounding it—especially GTA Online—continues to generate substantial revenue long after the initial launch." Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete details about the future of GTA Online, noting, "We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year. We know a transition is inevitable, but Take‑Two has not communicated a timeline, so we can only infer based on past patterns of previous GTA releases.
Our 2027 forecast does include the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another major revenue driver, but beyond that we are operating in a data‑scarce environment." The conversation then turned to pricing. Rosier observed that the price elasticity for a title like GTA VI is remarkably low because there is essentially only one version of the game on the market.
"When a premium title raises its price, it often lifts the entire market. Indie games, for example, have seen price points move from $20 to $30, reflecting a broader willingness to spend more on high‑quality experiences," he noted. "Everyone has been waiting for GTA VI for years, and while not every consumer can afford it, the overall price uplift tends to benefit the ecosystem." Beyond consoles, Newzoo’s report reaffirms mobile gaming’s dominance. Mobile is projected to capture 57% of global game revenue in 2026, amounting to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑over‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
The report also recalled that GTA VI pre‑orders generated roughly $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the franchise’s massive upfront demand. This early revenue stream, combined with the anticipated post‑launch spend on both the base game and its online component, forms a substantial portion of the projected growth in console earnings.
In summary, Newzoo’s outlook paints a picture of a console market that would otherwise be stagnant without the catalytic effect of Grand Theft Auto VI. The game’s release not only injects a sizable boost to full‑game spending but also influences publishing calendars, pricing dynamics, and long‑term revenue streams through its online services. Coupled with the anticipated arrival of Nintendo’s Switch 2, these factors collectively ensure that console manufacturers and developers can look forward to modest yet meaningful growth in 2026, even as mobile continues to dominate the broader gaming revenue landscape.