If Rockstar Games does not release Grand Theft Auto 6 in 2026, the console market would essentially see no growth compared with the previous year, according to Newzoo’s market intelligence chief Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier. Speaking to GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom 2026, Rosier emphasized that the upcoming GTA 6 title is the single most significant catalyst that will keep console revenue from slipping into negative territory. He also highlighted the anticipated Nintendo Switch 2 as another important contributor to the platform’s performance, but made it clear that the blockbuster open‑world crime saga is the primary engine of any positive momentum. "There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto 6 this year, which is going to drive the market up," Rosier told the press.
"If in 2026, let's say Grand Theft Auto 6 wasn't coming out, then you would have a platform going down year‑on‑year. GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026." Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report projects that total console revenue will climb 5.1 percent in 2026, reaching roughly $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA 6 is expected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by an impressive 17.5 percent, a figure Newzoo describes as the strongest expansion among all business models tracked. The analyst firm argues that the title’s sheer scale and the brand’s entrenched fan base will generate a spending surge that ripples through the entire ecosystem, from hardware sales to ancillary services.
Rosier warned, however, that the launch of GTA 6 could be "cannibalistic" to other releases. Many developers have already shifted their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s flagship, a strategy that underscores the game’s market‑shaping power. When asked whether the 2026 spike would be a one‑off bump that would level off in 2027, Rosier replied that the "strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title" suggests a longer‑term impact. The franchise’s legacy, he noted, means that the revenue uplift does not simply end when the initial sales window closes.
"We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year," Rosier admitted. "We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don't know when it's going to be the fit between current GTA and new GTA. We know it's also generating a lot of revenue. Our forecast for 2027 includes the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 on PC, so that's a big driver obviously.
But we have no information of any kind. We're just looking at the past and how things unfolded for the previous Grand Theft Auto title." Discussing the price point of GTA 6, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity is unusually low for this particular title. "Sometimes one publisher leads the way and then others follow; the price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA 6," he explained. The high anticipation and limited supply of the game allow Rockstar to command a premium price without deterring buyers.
Rosier added that when top‑tier titles raise their price, it often lifts the overall market, even influencing indie pricing. "Everyone's been waiting so long," he said.
"It doesn't mean that everyone can do that. But usually when the top pricing increases, it lifts the market; the indie game became $30 rather than $20.
The prices are being lifted a little bit." While consoles are poised for modest growth, Newzoo’s report confirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide, accounting for 57 percent of total industry income in 2026. Mobile earnings are projected at $121.1 billion, a 6.8 percent year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
This contrast underscores how the console segment relies heavily on flagship releases like GTA 6 to sustain its trajectory, whereas mobile benefits from broader, more diversified consumption patterns. In a related data point, Newzoo previously estimated that GTA 6 pre‑orders generated about $260 million in revenue within the first week after they became available. That early influx hints at the magnitude of the game's impact on the broader console ecosystem, reinforcing Rosier’s assertion that without such a juggernaut, the platform would likely experience flat or even declining revenues. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that is heavily dependent on a single, high‑profile launch to avoid stagnation.
The combination of a new Nintendo Switch model and the anticipated GTA 6 release provides the twin pillars supporting a projected 5.1 percent revenue increase to $46.9 billion in 2026. Absent GTA 6, the forecast would shift to a flat or negative growth scenario, highlighting the outsized influence of blockbuster titles on console economics. The broader industry context shows mobile gaming continuing its expansion, while consoles hinge on strategic releases and hardware refreshes to maintain relevance and profitability.