Shams Jorjani, the chief executive of Arrowhead Game Studios – the studio behind Helldivers 2 – told GamesIndustry.biz at Gamescom that the video‑game sector is currently undergoing a profound transition. He explained that the assumptions and playbooks that guided developers and publishers throughout the 2010s have lost their relevance in today’s market. "Sometimes there’s been doom and gloom, but overall the games industry is doing well," Jorjani said. "It’s just that the things we based our assumptions on have changed fundamentally.
The playbooks used from 2010 to 2020 no longer work. The bottom has fallen out of every business case that you had.
No one knew how well a game would sell, but they assumed it would sell at least this much. Whatever that number was, take a zero away.
And that’s the reality." He identified three major forces driving this shift. First, the continued ascent of developers from the Asia‑Pacific region.
This year’s Gamescom Opening Night Live highlighted the growing capabilities of studios in China and South Korea, and Jorjani observed that Asian games have been steadily gaining footholds in Western markets for a decade. "Now it’s game after game after game that’s really making it," he noted, pointing to a tipping point in the quality and ambition of Chinese titles. China’s market, while still heavily mobile‑centric, is beginning to influence global design sensibilities.
Jorjani explained that the mobile‑first mindset accelerates development speed, and artificial‑intelligence tools are amplifying that velocity. "AI is accelerating this because more and more games are coming out faster and faster everywhere," he said. The second catalyst is the rapid emergence of artificial intelligence as a production tool.
Unlike past hype cycles—such as virtual reality—Jorjani believes AI represents a structural change that reshapes how games are created, tested, and marketed. He highlighted a stark cultural divide: Western studios wrestle with ethical questions, data‑training rights, and artistic integrity, while many Eastern developers adopt AI with little hesitation, treating it as a straightforward efficiency boost. "In the West, we’re asking if it is ethical … whereas in the East, they absolutely do not care whatsoever," he observed. Jorjani admitted that this divergence creates an existential dilemma for Western creators.
As an artist, he feels a tension between the craft of storytelling and the functional nature of code generated by AI. Nevertheless, he expects the West to eventually catch up, albeit at a slower pace. The third factor is the sheer length of development cycles for AAA projects. Large‑scale titles often require five to six years of coordinated effort across multiple studios and time zones.
This long horizon makes publishers risk‑averse; they lean on established franchises and recognizable brands to mitigate uncertainty. Jorjani explained that brand equity acts as a safety net in an environment where “analysis paralysis” can overwhelm consumers faced with an ever‑growing catalogue of releases. He cited Steam data indicating that roughly half of the games played on the platform are older than 18 months, underscoring the market’s appetite for familiar experiences over brand‑new IPs. While players vocalize a desire for fresh concepts, purchasing behaviour tends to favor sequels, remakes, and proven properties.
Arrowhead’s own success with Helldivers illustrates how a lucky break and a distinctive “secret sauce” can propel a studio into the spotlight. Jorjani contrasted this dynamic with the strategy of companies like Riot Games and Supercell, which juggle multiple projects simultaneously.
When one title becomes a blockbuster, the others can fade into obscurity. By contrast, indie developers enjoy a strategic advantage: they can iterate quickly, gather early feedback, and pivot before committing massive resources. "The secret sauce to any successful game is early validation," he asserted.
"The sooner you can get something in front of a person and get positive feedback, you know you’re on track, onto something, and you can iterate." He pointed to the indie practice of sharing short GIFs or prototype videos on social media; viral responses can confirm a concept’s appeal long before a full production begins. This rapid feedback loop stands in stark contrast to a four‑year AAA cycle that waits until the final product to launch a major marketing push. Arrowhead plans to embed this early‑validation mindset into its next project. Inspired by mobile‑game studios that test concepts through ad‑based experiments, the company intends to place early builds directly into the hands of a curated group of players.
Jorjani described a pilot where 100 dedicated Helldivers fans would receive an early prototype and be asked about their favorite IPs and gameplay preferences. By segmenting the audience—identifying those who love both aliens and Helldivers versus those who enjoy Helldivers but not the alien theme—the team can gauge whether the new game resonates with its target niche. He emphasized that this approach requires abandoning the old habit of keeping a project under wraps for years before a grand reveal. "It requires you to let go of that old playbook of playing your cards close to the chest for years, and then dazzle and razzle," he concluded.
In summary, Jorjani sees the industry at a crossroads where long development timelines, the rise of Asian studios, and the disruptive potential of AI have upended traditional business models. While large publishers may double down on familiar franchises to hedge risk, independent developers who embrace rapid iteration, early community validation, and flexible design philosophies are uniquely positioned to thrive in this new landscape. Arrowhead’s own shift toward early player involvement exemplifies how studios can adapt, ensuring they remain relevant as the gaming world continues to evolve.