If Grand Theft Auto VI does not hit shelves in 2026, the console market would essentially break even with the figures recorded in 2025, according to Newzoo’s latest outlook. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that Rockstar’s much‑anticipated crime‑action title is the single catalyst that will keep the console segment from slipping into a year‑over‑year decline. Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but he made it clear that the bulk of the growth forecast hinges on GTA VI’s release.
"Two main forces are shaping the console landscape right now: the launch of Switch 2 and, of course, the arrival of Grand Theft Auto VI later this year. Those two drivers are what will push the market upward," Rosier told the press. He added a hypothetical scenario to underline his point: "If GTA VI were not scheduled for 2026, we would actually be looking at a contraction in console revenue compared with 2025. The game is essentially the engine that will generate positive growth for the platform this year." Newzoo’s freshly published Global Games Market Report backs up Rosier’s comments with hard numbers.
The report predicts that worldwide console revenue will climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching roughly $46.9 billion. Within that total, full‑game purchases on consoles are expected to surge by 17.5% thanks to GTA VI, a growth rate Newzoo describes as the strongest among all business models in the industry. Rosier also warned that the blockbuster’s launch is likely to be "cannibalistic" to other titles, a factor that has already prompted many developers to shift their release windows to avoid direct competition with the Rockstar juggernaut.
When asked whether the market would experience a massive "GTA bump" in 2026 followed by a correction in 2027, Rosier emphasized the enduring power of the franchise. "Grand Theft Auto is a catalogue title with a massive, loyal fan base. The impact doesn’t simply end when the game ships in 2026; its influence will continue to ripple through the ecosystem for years." He also touched on the uncertain future of GTA Online, noting that Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about any transition plans. "We know a transition is coming at some point, but the company hasn’t communicated a timeline, so we can’t predict exactly how the current GTA ecosystem will evolve into the next iteration.
What we do know is that GTA Online continues to generate substantial revenue," Rosian said. He added that Newzoo’s 2027 forecast already assumes a PC launch of GTA VI, which will serve as another major revenue driver, though the firm lacks concrete details beyond historical patterns. Regarding pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for GTA VI appears very low. "When a single title commands such a premium, it tends to lift the overall price floor for games across the board.
Indie titles that were previously priced around $20 are now hovering closer to $30, reflecting a modest but noticeable upward shift in average game prices," he explained. This phenomenon, he noted, is typical when a flagship product pushes the perceived value of the entire category higher.
While consoles are set to benefit from GTA VI, Newzoo’s report reaffirms that mobile gaming remains the dominant revenue generator worldwide. Mobile platforms are projected to capture 57% of global game revenue in 2026, translating to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spend and the continued expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts. In a related data point, Newzoo previously estimated that GTA VI pre‑orders generated about $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the franchise’s massive commercial pull even before the full game launch. Overall, the consensus among analysts is that without the gravitational pull of Grand Theft Auto VI, the console market would likely see flat or even declining revenues in 2026.
The combination of a new Nintendo console and the GTA VI release creates a rare alignment of factors that together are expected to push the sector into modest growth, while the broader industry continues to be dominated by mobile gaming’s sheer scale and spending power.