In a recent interview at Gamescom 2026, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, warned that the console market would essentially plateau in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not release Grand Theft Auto VI this year. Rosier told GamesIndustry.biz that the upcoming blockbuster is the single most powerful catalyst keeping the console ecosystem on an upward trajectory, and that without it the sector would likely register a year‑on‑year decline. Rosier also highlighted the role of Nintendo’s next‑generation handheld, the Switch 2, as a secondary engine of growth. “There are two drivers that are explaining the current and future performance of consoles: Switch 2 and, obviously, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI this year, which is going to drive the market up,” he explained.
He added that if the title were postponed or cancelled, the console platform would experience negative growth, underscoring GTA VI’s outsized influence on the industry. Newzoo’s latest Global Games Market Report backs up those statements with hard numbers.
The firm forecasts that total console revenue will climb 5.1% in 2026, reaching $46.9 billion. Within that growth, GTA VI alone is projected to boost full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, making it the strongest growth driver across all business models tracked by Newzoo.
The analyst also noted that GTA VI’s release will likely be cannibalistic to other titles. Many developers are already shifting their launch windows to avoid direct competition with Rockstar’s juggernaut, a strategy that reflects the game’s anticipated market‑share dominance.
When asked whether the 2026 surge would be a one‑off spike that would normalize in 2027, Rosier replied that the “strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title” means its impact will extend beyond the initial launch window. The franchise’s longevity, bolstered by a robust online component, suggests that revenue will continue to flow for years after the console debut. Regarding GTA Online, Rosier admitted that Newzoo lacks concrete information about the upcoming transition plan. “We have no certainty about what GTA Online will become in the coming months and year,” he said.
“We know there will be a transition at some point, but Take‑Two has not been communicating about it, so we don’t know when it will be the fit between current GTA and new GTA. We know it’s also generating a lot of revenue.” He added that the 2027 forecast already incorporates the PC launch of GTA VI, which will serve as another significant revenue engine, but the firm is essentially extrapolating from historical patterns of previous GTA releases. On pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for a flagship title like GTA VI is very low.
“Sometimes one publisher leads the way and then others follow; the price elasticity is very low because there is only one GTA VI,” he said. He explained that the long‑awaited nature of the game allows Rockstar to command a premium price, and that this premium can have a ripple effect, nudging indie titles upward as well.
“When the top pricing increases, it lifts the market; the indie game became $30 rather than $20. The prices are being lifted a little bit,” he noted. While consoles are set for modest growth, Newzoo’s report reiterates that mobile remains the dominant revenue generator in the global games market. Mobile is projected to account for 57% of total industry revenue in 2026, translating to $121.1 billion—a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase driven by higher player spending and the expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
The report also recalled that GTA VI pre‑orders generated $260 million in their first week of availability, underscoring the franchise’s ability to mobilize a massive audience even before the game hits shelves. This early revenue burst, combined with the anticipated post‑launch spend on both the base game and its online component, forms a substantial portion of the projected console growth. In summary, Newzoo’s analysis paints a picture of a console market that is heavily dependent on a few key releases to sustain momentum.
The Switch 2 provides a modest lift, but the real engine is GTA VI, whose launch is expected to not only prevent a decline but also push the sector into modest expansion. The broader industry context shows mobile continuing to dominate overall revenue, while the high‑profile console titles act as critical anchors for the console segment’s health. Should Rockstar delay or alter its release strategy, the ripple effects could be felt across the entire ecosystem, potentially turning the projected 5.1% growth into a contraction.