According to Newzoo’s latest market outlook, the console segment would essentially see no growth in 2026 if Rockstar Games did not launch Grand Theft Auto VI this year. Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, explained to GamesIndustry.biz during Gamescom 2026 that the forthcoming GTA VI title is the single most important catalyst keeping the console market from slipping into negative territory. Rosier also highlighted the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2 as another positive influence, but he emphasized that the Rockstar release dwarfs any other factor when it comes to driving revenue.
"Two main forces are shaping the console landscape right now: the arrival of the Switch 2 and, of course, the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI," Rosier told the reporters. "If GTA VI were not arriving in 2026, we would be looking at a year‑over‑year decline for the platform. The game is essentially the engine that powers growth for consoles this year." Newzoo’s Global Games Market Report, released alongside the interview, forecasts a 5.1% increase in console sales for 2026, taking total revenue to roughly $46.9 billion.
Within that figure, GTA VI is projected to lift full‑game spending on consoles by 17.5%, a rate that Newzoo describes as the strongest growth among all business models in the sector. The report also notes that this surge is expected to be partially offset by cannibalisation of other titles, as developers and publishers shift release windows to avoid direct competition with the blockbuster. Rosier elaborated on that point, saying that many studios have already moved their launch dates to sidestep the massive attention GTA VI will command.
"The release will be cannibalistic to some other games," he said, "which explains why we’re seeing a wave of schedule adjustments across the industry." When asked whether the market would experience a pronounced "GTA bump" in 2026 that might taper off in 2027, Rosier responded that the franchise’s longevity makes such a dip unlikely. "Grand Theft Auto is a catalogue title with a very strong brand pull," he explained. "The story doesn’t end in 2026; the franchise continues to generate revenue long after the initial launch." He added that the future of GTA Online remains uncertain. "We don’t have concrete information about how GTA Online will evolve over the next months and year," Rosier admitted.
"Take‑Two has been tight‑lipped about any transition plans, so we can only infer from past patterns. Our 2027 forecast already assumes the PC launch of GTA VI, which will be another major driver, but beyond that we are working with limited data." Discussing pricing, Rosier observed that the market’s price elasticity for a title like GTA VI is extremely low. "There is only one GTA VI, and the demand is inelastic," he said. "When a flagship title commands a premium price, it often lifts the overall price floor for other games.
Indie titles that were previously priced around $20 are now seeing $30 price points, reflecting a modest upward shift across the board." The broader market context remains dominated by mobile gaming. Newzoo’s report confirms that mobile continues to capture the largest share of global gaming revenue, accounting for 57% of the total—approximately $121.1 billion in 2026. This represents a 6.8% year‑on‑year increase, driven by higher player spend and the expansion of direct‑to‑consumer storefronts.
While consoles benefit from the GTA VI boost, mobile’s sheer scale still makes it the primary revenue engine for the industry. In addition to the forecasted revenue impact, Newzoo disclosed that GTA VI pre‑orders generated about $260 million in the first week after they opened. This early cash flow underscores the title’s massive market pull and provides a glimpse into the spending power that will likely continue to flow throughout the year.
Overall, the data suggest that without Rockstar’s flagship release, the console market would have struggled to maintain its position, potentially slipping into negative growth. The combination of a highly anticipated AAA title and the next‑generation Switch 2 console creates a rare alignment of supply‑side innovation and demand‑side enthusiasm, allowing the platform to achieve modest but meaningful growth in 2026. As the year progresses, analysts will watch closely how the launch performance translates into sustained revenue, how GTA Online evolves, and whether the price uplift observed in premium titles spills over into broader segments of the console ecosystem.